Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland
This study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information contained in the Business Tendency Surveys, is able to predict future revisions of the initial estimates. Our findings imply that there seems to be a scope for improvement of how preliminary estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate are produced in Switzerland.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Zürich|
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990.
"A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999.
"Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
- Neil Shephard & Jurgen Doornik & Siem Jan Koopman, 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Nicolas Cuche-Curti & Pamela Hall & Attilio Zanetti, 2008. "Swiss GDP revisions: A monetary policy perspective," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(2), pages 183-213.
- Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:11-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.