Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia
The paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1) with a dummy, as the most appropriate. According to the four-year-forecasts, it is expected a 25% increase of the international tourist arrivals. Although the suggested model cannot explain the driving factors behind the results, the projected values can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Petrevska, Biljana, 2011. "Tourism In The Global Development Strategy Of Macedonia: Economic Perspectives," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 2(1), pages 101-108.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:utmsje:0048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zoran Ivanovic)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.