Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia
This paper examines stationary and nonstationary time series by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation, model selection and forecasting. Various Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are estimated over the period 1975(1)-1989(4) for tourist arrivals to Australia from Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as measures of forecast accuracy. As the best fitting ARIMA model is found to have the lowest RMSE, it is used to obtain post-sample forecasts. Tourist arrivals data for 1990(1) to 1996(4) are compared with the forecast performance of the ARIMA model for each origin market. The fitted ARIMA model forecasts tourist arrivals from Singapore between 1990(1)-1996(4) very well. Although the ARIMA model outperforms the seasonal ARIMA models for Hong Kong and Malaysia, the forecast of tourist arrivals is not as accurate as in the case of Singapore.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 6-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-0047|
Web page: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/index-e.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fumiko Matsumoto)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.