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Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis

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  • Naudé, Wim
  • Saayman, Andrea

Abstract

Africa’s tourism potential is acknowledged to be significant but underdeveloped. This paper uses both cross-section data and panel data for the period 1996–2000 to identify the determinants of tourism arrivals in 43 African countries, taking into account tourists’ country of origin. The results strongly suggest that political stability, tourism infrastructure, marketing and information, and the level of development at the destination are key determinants of travel to Africa. Typical ‘developed country determinants’ of tourism demand, such as the level of income in the origin country, the relative prices and the cost of travel, are not so significant in explaining the demand for Africa as a tourism destination. It is therefore recommended that attention should be given to improving the overall stability of the continent and the availability and quantity of tourism infrastructure.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16479.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16479
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Keywords: Africa; tourism; tourism arrivals;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
  • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
  • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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Cited by:

  1. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc
    [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]    ," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.
  2. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
  4. Johan Fourie & Mar�a Santana-Gallego, 2013. "The determinants of African tourism," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 347-366, September.
  5. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41 - 54, September.
  6. James Roumasset & Christopher Wada, 2012. "The Economics of Groundwater," Working Papers 201211, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  7. Shawn Arita & Sumner La Croix & James Mak, 2012. "How Big? The Impact of Approved Destination Status on Mainland Chinese Travel Abroad," Working Papers 201212, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  8. Massidda, Carla & Etzo, Ivan, 2010. "Domestic tourism demand in Italy: a Fixed Effect Vector Decomposition estimation," MPRA Paper 26073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Yap, Ghialy & Allen, David, 2011. "Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1365-1374.
  10. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Thanes Sriwichailamphan & Prasert Chaitip & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(3), pages 69-86.
  11. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Jordaan, Andre C., 2007. "Estimating The Tourism Potential In Namibia," MPRA Paper 5788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.
  13. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
  14. Ceyhun Elgin, 2012. "Internet Usage and the Shadow Economy: Evidence from Panel Data," Working Papers 2012/09, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  15. Wim Naudé, 2010. "Africa And The Global Economic Crisis: A Risk Assessment And Action Guide," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 27, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  16. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: Thailand’s International Tourism Demand Model," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 129-142.
  17. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel, 2008. "Tourism and urban transport: Holding demand pressure under supply constraints," Working Papers XREAP2008-14, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2008.

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