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Univariate Modelling Using Periodic and Non-Periodic Analysis: Inbound Tourism to Japan, Australia and New Zealand Compared

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  • Lindsay W. Turner
  • N. Kulendran
  • H. Fernando

Abstract

This paper examines three hypotheses using the time-series between 1978 and 1995 of quarterly tourist flows into Japan, Australia and New Zealand. First, whether periodic models can be used to successfully forecast tourism arrival series. Second, whether the Basic Structural Model (BSM) can forecast as accurately as the Box Jenkins (ARIMA) model. Third, whether the integrated seasonal univariate models forecast more accurately than the naive process. The paper concludes that the periodic model does not improve forecast accuracy. The BSM model performs at least as well as the ARIMA model, and the naive process is not a substitute for seasonal integrated models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindsay W. Turner & N. Kulendran & H. Fernando, 1997. "Univariate Modelling Using Periodic and Non-Periodic Analysis: Inbound Tourism to Japan, Australia and New Zealand Compared," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 39-56, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:3:y:1997:i:1:p:39-56
    DOI: 10.1177/135481669700300103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richa Dhariwal, 2005. "Tourist Arrivals in India: How Important are Domestic Disorders?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 185-205, June.
    2. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. J. Cunado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Modelling Monthly Spanish Tourism: A Seasonal Fractionally Integrated Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(1), pages 79-94, March.
    4. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    5. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    8. Jo C. Vu, 2006. "Effect of Demand Volume on Forecasting Accuracy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 263-276, June.
    9. J. Cunado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Péarez de Gracia, 2005. "The Nature of Seasonality in Spanish Tourism Time Series," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 483-499, December.
    10. Saroja Selvanathan, 2007. "The effect of war and other factors on Sri Lankan tourism," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 35-38.

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