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Cointegration Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey

  • KETENCI, Natalya

This paper estimates the tourism demand model for Turkey from 14 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. Different approaches were used to find cointegration in the considered model for the period from 1996 to 2000 on a monthly basis. From our results we found evidence at the high significance level of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. We found that income plays a more important role in the holiday-making decisions of tourists than the relative prices of the holiday destination. Inclusion in the model substitution destination decreased the degree of significance of relative Turkish prices in the demand model.

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:10:y:2010:i:1_6
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  1. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  5. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
  7. Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 1998. " Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 651-78, December.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1993. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1047, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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