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Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability

Author

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  • Alexander Chudik
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Mahrad Sharifvaghefi

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mahrad Sharifvaghefi, 2023. "Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability," Papers 2312.15494, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2312.15494
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Baum, Christopher F. & García-Suaza, Andrés & Henry, Miguel & Otero, Jesús, 2025. "Drivers of COVID-19 in U.S. counties: A wave-level analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Anton Skrobotov, 2024. "Time series forecasting under structural breaks," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 76, pages 120-139.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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