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A Multiple Testing Approach to the Regularisation of Large Sample Correlation Matrices

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Bailey

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • M. Hashem Pesaran

    (University of Southern California, and University of Cambridge)

  • L. Vanessa Smith

    (University of York)

Abstract

This paper proposes a regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices that uses insights from the multiple testing (MT) literature. The approach tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations and sets to zero those elements that are not statistically significant, taking account of the multiple testing nature of the problem. By using the inverse of the normal distribution at a predetermined significance level, it circumvents the challenge of estimating the theoretical constant arising in the rate of convergence of existing thresholding estimators, and hence it is easy to implement and does not require cross-validation. The MT estimator of the sample correlation matrix is shown to be consistent in the spectral and Frobenius norms, and in terms of support recovery, so long as the true covariance matrix is sparse. The performance of the proposed MT estimator is compared to a number of other estimators in the literature using Monte Carlo experiments. It is shown that the MT estimator performs well and tends to outperform the other estimators, particularly when the cross section dimension, N, is larger than the time series dimension, T.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Bailey & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2015. "A Multiple Testing Approach to the Regularisation of Large Sample Correlation Matrices," Working Papers 764, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:764
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Bailey & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2018. "Exponent of Cross-sectional Dependence for Residuals," CESifo Working Paper Series 7223, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Natalia Bailey & Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "A Two‐Stage Approach to Spatio‐Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross‐Sectional Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 249-280, January.
    3. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    4. Craig, Ben R. & Saldias Zambrana, Martin, 2016. "Spatial Dependence and Data-Driven Networks of International Banks," Working Papers (Old Series) 1627, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Chudik, Alexander & Kapetanios, George & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "Big data analytics: a new perspective," Globalization Institute Working Papers 268, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. A. Chudik & G. Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2018. "A One Covariate at a Time, Multiple Testing Approach to Variable Selection in High‐Dimensional Linear Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1479-1512, July.
    7. Filippo di Mauro & Alexander Al-Haschimi & Stephane Dees & Martina Jancokova, 2014. "Linking Distress of Financial Institutions to Macrofinancial Shocks," EcoMod2014 6807, EcoMod.
    8. Chudik, A. & Pesaran, H. & Mohaddes, K., 2018. "Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1874, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Chudik, Alexander & Grossman, Valerie & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 349-365.
    10. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 12713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran & Simon Reese, 2018. "A Residual-based Threshold Method for Detection of Units that are Too Big to Fail in Large Factor Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 7401, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Elhorst, J. Paul & Gross, Marco & Tereanu, Eugen, 2018. "Spillovers in space and time: where spatial econometrics and Global VAR models meet," Working Paper Series 2134, European Central Bank.
    13. Yang, Cynthia Fan, 2017. "Common Factors and Spatial Dependence: An Application to US House Prices," MPRA Paper 89032, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Aug 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sparse correlation matrices; High-dimensional data; Multiple testing; Thresholding; Shrinkage;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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