Motor Vehicle Output and GDP, 1968–2007
In this paper, we assess the performance of the BEA series “value of motor vehicle output” as an indicator of the business cycle over the period 1968–2007. We statistically assess the causal relationship between real motor vehicle output (RMVO) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). This is accomplished by standard estimation and statistical methods used to assess vector autoregressive models. This assessment represents the initial results of a more encompassing research project, the intent of which is to determine the dynamic interaction of the transport sector with the overall economy. It’s a start to a more comprehensive assessment of how transport and economic activity interrelate. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2008
Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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- Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
- Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Rodney L. Jacobs & Edward E. Leamer & Michael P. Ward, 1978.
"Difficulties with Testing for Causation,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
117, UCLA Department of Economics.
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