Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data
This paper studies a procedure to combine individual forecasts that achieve theoretical optimal performance. The results apply to a wide variety of loss functions and no conditions are imposed on the data sequences and the individual forecasts apart from a tail condition. The theoretical results show that the bounds are also valid in the case of time varying combination weights, under specific conditions on the nature of time variation. Some experimental evidence to confirm the results is provided.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007.
CEPR Discussion Papers
6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sancetta, Alessio, 2007. "Online forecast combinations of distributions: Worst case bounds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 621-651, December.
- László Györfi & Gábor Lugosi & Frederic Udina, 2006. "Nonparametric Kernel-Based Sequential Investment Strategies," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 337-357.
- David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004.
"Pooling of forecasts,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, 06.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
- Yang, Yuhong, 2004. "Combining Forecasting Procedures: Some Theoretical Results," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 176-222, February.
- Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Pauly, Peter, 1990.
"The use of prior information in forecast combination,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 503-508, December.
- Francis X. Diebold & Peter Pauly, 1987. "The use of prior information in forecast combination," Special Studies Papers 218, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Samuelson, Paul A., 1979. "Why we should not make mean log of wealth big though years to act are long," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-307, December.
- Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004.
"Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt15r9t2q2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Kohler, Michael & Krzyzak, Adam & Walk, Harro, 2006. "Rates of convergence for partitioning and nearest neighbor regression estimates with unbounded data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 311-323, February.
- Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "The combination of forecasts using changing weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-57, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.