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Model selection in factor-augmented regressions with estimated factors

Author

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  • Antoine A. Djogbenou

Abstract

This paper proposes two consistent model selection procedures for factor-augmented regressions (FAR) in finite samples. We first demonstrate that the usual cross-validation is inconsistent, but that a generalization, leave-d-out cross-validation, is consistent. The second proposed criterion is a generalization of the bootstrap approximation of the squared error of prediction to FARs. The paper provides the validity results and documents their finite sample performance through simulations. An illustrative empirical application that analyzes the relationship between the equity premium and factors extracted from a large panel of U.S. macroeconomic data is conducted.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2021. "Model selection in factor-augmented regressions with estimated factors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 470-503, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:40:y:2021:i:5:p:470-503
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2020.1808371
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Qitong & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haiqi, 2024. "Time-varying forecast combination for factor-augmented regressions with smooth structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    2. Tingting Cheng & Jiachen Cong & Fei Liu & Xuanbin Yang, 2025. "Binary Response Forecasting under a Factor-Augmented Framework," Papers 2507.16462, arXiv.org.
    3. Djogbenou, Antoine & Sufana, Razvan, 2024. "Tests for group-specific heterogeneity in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    4. Marine Carrasco & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "In-Sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 313-338, July.
    5. Tu, Yundong & Wang, Siwei, 2025. "Consistent model selection for factor-augmented regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Tu, Yundong & Zheng, Jinsha, 2025. "Consistent model selection for factor-augmented regression within hierarchical factor structures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    7. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2020. "Comovements in the real activity of developed and emerging economies: A test of global versus specific international factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 344-370, April.
    8. Tu, Yundong & Wang, Siwei, 2024. "Selection inconsistency for factor-augmented regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Aránzazu Juan & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2025. "Economic activity and $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 emissions in Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1379-1408, March.
    10. Jack Fosten, 2017. "Model selection with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1087-1106, September.
    11. Tu, Yundong & Wang, Siwei, 2025. "Quantile prediction with factor-augmented regression: Structural instability and model uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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