Bubbles and contagion in English house prices
Using methods originating from statistical physics we model bubbles in English house prices. It is found that there was a nationwide housing bubble 2002-2007. Typically prices were 30-40% over-valued and fell around 20%. London is atypical in that the level of over-pricing was lower, only around 20%, and experienced a drop in prices of only around 15%. There is some suggestion of contagious effects, with the bubble in London affecting prices in Yorkshire and the North.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. A. Feigenbaum, 2001. "More on a statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 527-532.
- Sornette, D & Malevergne, Y, 2001.
"From rational bubbles to crashes,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 40-59.
- J.A. Feigenbaum, 2001. "A statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes-super-," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 346-360, March.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003.
- George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2008. "Detecting log-periodicity in a regime-switching model of stock returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 723-738.
- Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
- Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
- D. Sornette & J. V. Andersen, 2001. "A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0104341, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2002.
- George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2006. "A Bayesian analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 15-36.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.