IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v455y2016icp27-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

Author

Listed:
  • Grosjean, Nicolas
  • Huillet, Thierry

Abstract

Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Grosjean, Nicolas & Huillet, Thierry, 2016. "Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 455(C), pages 27-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:455:y:2016:i:c:p:27-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.02.063
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116002417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2016.02.063?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fu, Zongfei & Li, Zenghu, 2010. "Stochastic equations of non-negative processes with jumps," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 306-330, March.
    2. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    3. L. Lin & D. Sornette, 2013. "Diagnostics of rational expectation financial bubbles with stochastic mean-reverting termination times," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 344-365, May.
    4. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
    5. D. Sornette & J. V. Andersen, 2001. "A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0104341, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2002.
    6. Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
    7. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
    8. D. Sornette & J. V. Andersen, 2002. "A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model Of Speculative Financial Bubbles," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 171-187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2015. ""Speculative Influence Network" during financial bubbles: application to Chinese Stock Markets," Papers 1510.08162, arXiv.org.
    2. Damian Smug & Peter Ashwin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Predicting financial market crashes using ghost singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 385-431, July.
    4. L. Lin & M. Schatz & D. Sornette, 2019. "A simple mechanism for financial bubbles: time-varying momentum horizon," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 937-959, June.
    5. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2016. "A Simple Mechanism for Financial Bubbles: Time-Varying Momentum Horizon," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-61, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2023. "The inverse Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process for parsimonious financial price modeling," Papers 2302.11423, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    7. D. Sornette & R. Woodard, "undated". "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Working Papers CCSS-09-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    8. Jerome L Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Super-Exponential RE Bubble Model with Efficient Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-33, Swiss Finance Institute.
    9. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2009. "Diagnostics of Rational Expectation Financial Bubbles with Stochastic Mean-Reverting Termination Times," Papers 0911.1921, arXiv.org.
    10. John M. Fry, 2009. "Statistical modelling of financial crashes: Rapid growth, illusion of certainty and contagion," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    11. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    12. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Papers 0905.0220, arXiv.org.
    13. Yukalov, V.I. & Sornette, D. & Yukalova, E.P., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 206-230, May.
    14. Diego Ardila & Dorsa Sanadgol & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 613-631, April.
    15. Ide, Kayo & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 63-106.
    16. Fry, J. M., 2009. "Bubbles and contagion in English house prices," MPRA Paper 17687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. D. Sornette, 2008. "Nurturing breakthroughs: lessons from complexity theory," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(2), pages 165-181, December.
    18. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
    19. Fry, J. M., 2010. "Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices," MPRA Paper 24778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65434, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:455:y:2016:i:c:p:27-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.