IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbp/nbpchp/12.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Panel analysis of home prices in the primary and secondary market in 17 largest cities in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Olszewski
  • Robert Leszczyński

Abstract

We analyse the determinants of house prices in the primary and secondary market of 17 largest cities in Poland during the 2002-2013 period. We find that prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as income growth or rise in employment. Prices in the secondary market react to increases in the loan availability, that was driven by low interest rates resulting from FX denominated housing loans that were granted since 2006. This finding does not hold for the primary market, which is to a large extent financed with cash. We confirm empirically that the house appreciation in the past period has a strong effect on the current price, which confirms herding behaviour in the housing market. Another finding is that the secondary market has a stronger effect on the primary market than the other way around. This means that housing demand is satisfied in the first place from the secondary market, and if prices rise, potential buyers go to the primary market. Finally, we find that price increases in Warsaw spill over to the local markets of 16 regional cities. This finding is consistent with the contagion theory in the real estate market, according to which price increases in the centre lead to price increases in the periphery.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Olszewski & Robert Leszczyński, 2013. "Panel analysis of home prices in the primary and secondary market in 17 largest cities in Poland," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpchp:12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/182_en_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dan Andrews, 2010. "Real House Prices in OECD Countries: The Role of Demand Shocks and Structural and Policy Factors," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 831, OECD Publishing.
    2. Deniz O Igan & Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 12/217, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
    4. Flannery, Mark J. & Hankins, Kristine Watson, 2013. "Estimating dynamic panel models in corporate finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    7. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    8. G. Donald Jud & Dan T. Winkler, 2002. "The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 29-46.
    9. Augustyniak, Hanna & Gajewski, Krzysztof & Łaszek, Jacek & Żochowski, Grzegorz, 2012. "Real estate development enterprises in the Polish market and issues related to its analysis," MPRA Paper 43347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    11. Hanna Augustyniak & Laszek Jacek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects," NBP Working Papers 143, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    12. Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "To Rent or to Buy – Analysis of Housing Tenure Choice Determined by Housing Policy," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 33.
    13. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
    14. Christophe André, 2010. "A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 746, OECD Publishing.
    15. Grażyna Baldowska & Robert Leszczyński & Barbara Myszkowska, 2014. "Convergence and differentiation processes in local markets and structural changes (comparison of 16 markets in Poland)," NBP Working Papers 174, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Widłak, Marta & Waszczuk, Joanna & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2014. "Spatial and hedonic analysis of house price dynamics in Warsaw," MPRA Paper 60479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Fry, J. M., 2009. "Bubbles and contagion in English house prices," MPRA Paper 17687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    19. Łaszek, Jacek, 2013. "Housing in consumer’s theory," MPRA Paper 52365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Olszewski & Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Laszek & Robert Leszczynski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2016. "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2015. "Cointegration of Property Prices in Poland," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 1-4.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing market; house prices; primary and secondary market; spillover effects;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpchp:12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zbigniew Polański). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.