Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects
While analysing the housing market, we focus on the short-term modelling of the housing units market instead of analysing the long-term housing space market. In this context, even a minor change in factors affecting the real estate market leads, due to the multiplier effect, to strong shocks on the demand side, and, consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the price elasticity of supply and demand, may disappear or explode. This articles presents the modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market. We focus on price changes and the number of housing units in the primary and secondary market. We find that in order to smooth the housing cycle, the housing demand needs to be smoothed. This can be achieved with the use of fiscal policy, prudential regulations and housing policy.
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