Índice de precios de viviendas nuevas en Santiago basado en la metodología de ventas repetidas[New housing price index in Santiago based on the repeat-sales methodology]

Constructing price indices for new housing markets is challenged by the lack of resale history required for traditional methods. This study proposes a novel solution by exploiting purchase agreement cancellations to identify repeat-sales pairs within the pre-sale market. Using a comprehensive dataset from Santiago (2013–2024) with 25,049 repeat-sales pairs, this approach ensures strict adherence to the constant quality assumption, effectively eliminating depreciation bias by comparing the same unoccupied unit across time. Results from Geometric (GRS) and Arithmetic (ARS) estimators reveal three critical insights: (1) a distinct price hierarchy, indicating that capital appreciation was concentrated in entry-level and investment segments rather than high-value assets; (2) the index acts as a leading indicator, detecting the post-2021 market correction before official deed-based records; and (3) a 27% nominal loss rate in recent subsequent sales, validating significant price adjustments driven by financial frictions.