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Índice de precios de viviendas nuevas en Santiago basado en la metodología de ventas repetidas
[New housing price index in Santiago based on the repeat-sales methodology]

Author

Listed:
  • Lozano, Francisco Javier

Abstract

Constructing price indices for new housing markets is challenged by the lack of resale history required for traditional methods. This study proposes a novel solution by exploiting purchase agreement cancellations to identify repeat-sales pairs within the pre-sale market. Using a comprehensive dataset from Santiago (2013–2024) with 25,049 repeat-sales pairs, this approach ensures strict adherence to the constant quality assumption, effectively eliminating depreciation bias by comparing the same unoccupied unit across time. Results from Geometric (GRS) and Arithmetic (ARS) estimators reveal three critical insights: (1) a distinct price hierarchy, indicating that capital appreciation was concentrated in entry-level and investment segments rather than high-value assets; (2) the index acts as a leading indicator, detecting the post-2021 market correction before official deed-based records; and (3) a 27% nominal loss rate in recent subsequent sales, validating significant price adjustments driven by financial frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lozano, Francisco Javier, 2025. "Índice de precios de viviendas nuevas en Santiago basado en la metodología de ventas repetidas [New housing price index in Santiago based on the repeat-sales methodology]," MPRA Paper 127115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127115
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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