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A Repeat Sales Index Robust to Small Datasets

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Baroni

    (Finance Department - Essec Business School)

  • Fabrice Barthélémy

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mokrane Mahdi

    (AEW Europe - AEW Europe)

Abstract

As suggested by D. Geltner, commercial properties indices have to be built using repeat sales instead of hedonic indices. The repeat sales method is a means of constructing real estate price indices based on a repeated observation of property transactions. These indices may be used as benchmarks for real estate portfolio managers. But the investors in general are also interested in introducing real estate performance in their portfolio to enhance the efficient frontier. Thus, expected return and volatility are the two key parameters. To create and to improve contracts on real estate indices, trend and volatility of these indices must be robust regarding to the periodicity of the index and the volume of transactions. This paper aims to test the robustness of the trend and volatility estimations for two indices: the classical Weighted Repeat Sales (Case & Shiller 1987) and a PCA factorial index (Baroni, Barthélémy and Mokrane 2007). The estimations are computed from a dataset of Paris commercial properties. The main findings are the trend and volatility estimates are biased for the WRS index and not for the PCA factorial index when the periodicity increases. Consequently, the level of the index at the end of the computing period is significantly different for various periodicities in the case of the WRS index. Globally, the PCA factorial seems to be more robust to the number of transactions. Firstly, we present the two methodologies and then the dataset. Finally we test the impact of the number of transactions per period on the trend and volatility estimates for each index and we give an interpretation of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mokrane Mahdi, 2009. "A Repeat Sales Index Robust to Small Datasets," Post-Print hal-00551732, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00551732
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-essec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00551732
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurer, Raimond & Pitzer, Martin & Sebastian, Steffen, 2001. "Construction of a Transaction Based Real Estate Index for the Paris Housing Market," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-17, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. John M. Clapp & Carmelo Giaccotto, 1999. "Revisions in Repeat-Sales Price Indexes: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 79-104.
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    6. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2008. "Is It Possible to Construct Derivatives for the Paris Residential Market?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 233-264, October.
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    17. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthe´le´my & Mahdi Mokrane, 2007. "APCA Factor Repeat Sales Index for Apartment Prices in Paris," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(2), pages 137-158.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimation d'indices; Indice ventes répétées; Volume transactions immobilières; Index Estimations; Property Transactions Volume; Repeat Sales Indices;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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