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Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior

  • Arthur Korteweg
  • Morten Sorensen
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    We develop and estimate a unified model of house prices, loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), and trade and foreclosure behavior. House prices are only observed for traded properties, and trades are endogenous, creating sample-selection problems for traditional estimators. We develop a Bayesian filtering procedure to recover the price path for each individual property and produce selection-corrected estimates of historical LTVs and foreclosure behavior, both showing large unprecedented changes since 2007. Our model reduces the index revision problem by nearly half, and has applications in economics and finance (e.g., pricing mortgage-backed securities).

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17882.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17882.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17882
    Note: PE
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    1. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    2. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
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    7. Francis A. Longstaff, 2005. "Borrower Credit and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 619-661, December.
    8. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2011. "The risk-Shifting Hypothesis : Evidence from Subprime Originations," TSE Working Papers 11-279, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1992. "The Accuracy of Real Estate Indices: Repeat Sale Estimators," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-53, March.
    10. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
    11. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Case, Bradford & Pollakowski, Henry O & Wachter, Susan M, 1997. "Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 173-87, Jan.-Marc.
    13. Henry J. Munneke & Barrett A. Slade, 2001. "A Metropolitan Transaction-Based Commercial Price Index: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 55-84.
    14. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ebiere Okah & James Orr, 2010. "Subprime mortgage lending in New York City: prevalence and performance," Staff Reports 432, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-92, June.
    18. Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2012. "Negative equity does not reduce homeowners’ mobility," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Feb, pages 1-17.
    19. Meese, Richard A & Wallace, Nancy E, 1997. "The Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices: A Comparison of Repeat-Sales, Hedonic-Regression and Hybrid Approaches," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 51-73, Jan.-Marc.
    20. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2004. "Selectivity, Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2_3), pages 161-178, 03.
    21. Chris Downing & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2005. "An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 681-710, December.
    22. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng, 2006. "Estimating House Price Indexes in the Presence of Seller Reservation Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 100-112, February.
    23. Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott, 1991. "House Price Indexes: Issues and Results," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 259-269.
    24. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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