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Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior

Author

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  • Arthur Korteweg
  • Morten Sorensen

Abstract

We develop and estimate a unified model of house prices, loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), and trade and foreclosure behavior. House prices are only observed for traded properties, and trades are endogenous, creating sample-selection problems for traditional estimators. We develop a Bayesian filtering procedure to recover the price path for each individual property and produce selection-corrected estimates of historical LTVs and foreclosure behavior, both showing large unprecedented changes since 2007. Our model reduces the index revision problem by nearly half, and has applications in economics and finance (e.g., pricing mortgage-backed securities).

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior," NBER Working Papers 17882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17882
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
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    3. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
    4. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:red:issued:15-201 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Arthur Korteweg & Roman Kräussl & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2016. "Does it Pay to Invest in Art? A Selection-Corrected Returns Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 1007-1038.
    3. Damjanovic, Tatiana & Girdėnas, Šarūnas, 2014. "Quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 146-164.
    4. Steven Laufer, 2018. "Equity Extraction and Mortgage Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 1-33, April.
    5. John Cotter & Richard Roll, 2015. "A Comparative Anatomy of Residential REITs and Private Real Estate Markets: Returns, Risks and Distributional Characteristics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 209-240, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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