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The risk-Shifting Hypothesis : Evidence from Subprime Originations

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  • Landier, Augustin
  • Sraer, David
  • Thesmar, David

Abstract

Using loan level data, we provide evidence consistent with risk-shifting in the lending behavior of a large subprime mortgage originator { New Century Financial Corporation { starting in 2004. This change follows the monetary policy tightening implemented by the Fed in the spring of 2004, which resulted in an adverse shock to the large portfolio of loans New Century was holding for investment. New Century reacted to this shock by massively resorting to deferred amortization loan contracts (\interest-only" loans). We show that these loans were not only riskier, but also that their returns were by design more sensitive to real estate prices than standard contracts. New Century was thus financing projects with a high beta on its own survival, as predicted by a standard model of portfolio selection in financial distress. Our findings shed new light on the relationship between monetary policy and risk taking by financial institutions. They also contribute to better characterizing the type of risk taken by financially distressed firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2011. "The risk-Shifting Hypothesis : Evidence from Subprime Originations," TSE Working Papers 11-279, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Assaf Eisdorfer, 2008. "Empirical Evidence of Risk Shifting in Financially Distressed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 609-637, April.
    2. Gan, Jie, 2004. "Banking market structure and financial stability: Evidence from the Texas real estate crisis in the 1980s," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 567-601, September.
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    4. Bostic, Raphael W. & Engel, Kathleen C. & McCoy, Patricia A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony & Wachter, Susan M., 2008. "State and local anti-predatory lending laws: The effect of legal enforcement mechanisms," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 47-66.
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    Cited by:

    1. Felipe S. Iachan, 2020. "Capital Budgeting and Risk Taking Under Credit Constraints," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 4292-4314, September.
    2. Acharya, Viral & Litov, Lubomir P. & Sepe, Simone M., 2014. "Seeking Alpha, Taking Risk: Evidence from Non-executive Pay in U.S. Bank Holding Companies," Working Papers 13-18, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    4. Berndt, Antje & Hollifield, Burton & Sandås, Patrik, 2017. "What Broker Charges Reveal about Mortgage Credit Risk," Working Paper Series 336, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior," NBER Working Papers 17882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Beirne, John & Friedrich, Christian, 2017. "Macroprudential policies, capital flows, and the structure of the banking sector," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 47-68.
    7. Kogler, Michael, 2015. "Rewarding Prudence: Risk Taking, Pecuniary Externalities and Optimal Bank Regulation," Economics Working Paper Series 1512, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    8. Łukasz Kurowski & Paweł Smaga, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Cyclical Systemic Risk - Friends or Foes?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(5), pages 522-540.
    9. Colonnello, Stefano, 2020. "Executive compensation, macroeconomic conditions, and cash flow cyclicality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    10. Cziraki, Peter, 2018. "Trading by bank insiders before and during the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 58-82.
    11. Alaa Alaabed & Mansur Masih & Abbas Mirakhor, 2016. "Investigating risk shifting in Islamic banks in the dual banking systems of OIC member countries: An application of two-step dynamic GMM," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 236-263, December.
    12. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:667:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    14. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Loutskina, Elena, 2016. "Mortgage companies and regulatory arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 328-351.
    15. Rodney Ramcharan & Amir Kermani & Marco Di Maggio, 2015. "Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging," 2015 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2012. "Property Prices and Bank Risk-taking," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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