IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2010-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commercial and residential land prices across the United States

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We use a national dataset of land sales to construct land price indexes for 23 MSAs in the United States and for the aggregate of those MSAs. We construct the price indexes by estimating hedonic regressions with a large sample of land transactions dating back to the mid-1990s. The regressions feature a flexible method of controlling for spatial price patterns within an MSA. The resulting price indexes show a dramatic increase in both commercial and residential land prices over several years prior to their peak in 2006-07 and a steep descent since then. These fluctuations in land prices are considerably larger than those in well-known indexes of commercial real estate and house prices. Because those existing indexes price a bundle of land and structures, this comparison implies that land prices have been more volatile than structures prices over this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Mulhall & Joseph B. Nichols & Stephen D. Oliner, 2010. "Commercial and residential land prices across the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201016/201016abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201016/201016pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin A. Bryan & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2009. "Semiparametric estimation of land price gradients using large data sets," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Win), pages 53-74.
    2. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
    3. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
    4. Karl L. Guntermann & Gareth Thomas, 2005. "Parcel Size, Location and Commercial Land Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(3), pages 343-354.
    5. G. Donald Jud & Terry G. Seaks, 1994. "Sample Selection Bias in Estimating Housing Sales Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 289-298.
    6. David Bedoll & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr, 2008. "The price of land in the New York metropolitan area," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Apr).
    7. Colwell, Peter F, 1998. "A Primer on Piecewise Parabolic Multiple Regression Analysis via Estimations of Chicago CBD Land Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 87-97, July.
    8. Raymond W. Goldsmith, 1951. "A Perpetual Inventory of National Wealth," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 14, pages 5-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kowalski, Joseph G. & Paraskevopoulos, Christos C., 1990. "The impact of location on urban industrial land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 16-24, January.
    10. Morten L. Bech & Tara N. Rice, 2009. "Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2008," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 95(6).
    11. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
    12. Henry J. Munneke & Barrett A. Slade, 2001. "A Metropolitan Transaction‐Based Commercial Price Index: A Time‐Varying Parameter Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 55-84.
    13. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    14. Raphael W. Bostic & Stanley D. Longhofer & Christian L. Redfearn, 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-208, June.
    15. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    16. Peiser, Richard B., 1987. "The determinants of nonresidential urban land values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 340-360, November.
    17. Davis, Morris A., 2009. "The price and quantity of land by legal form of organization in the United States," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 350-359, May.
    18. Hans R. Isakson, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of the Value of Vacant Land," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(2), pages 103-114.
    19. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
    20. Rosenthal Stuart S. & Helsley Robert W., 1994. "Redevelopment and the Urban Land Price Gradient," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 182-200, March.
    21. Colwell, Peter F. & Munneke, Henry J., 1997. "The Structure of Urban Land Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 321-336, May.
    22. Brownstone, David & De Vany, Arthur, 1991. "Zoning, Returns to Scale, and the Value of Undeveloped Land," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 699-704, November.
    23. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2007. "The effect of land use regulation on housing and land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 420-435, May.
    24. Munneke, Henry J & Slade, Barrett A, 2000. "An Empirical Study of Sample-Selection Bias in Indices of Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 45-64, July.
    25. Richard Voith, 2001. "How responsive is the demand for residential land to changes in its price?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 33-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Arnott & Huiling Zhang, 2015. "The Aggregate Value of Land in the Greater Los Angeles Region," Working Papers 201506, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nichols, Joseph B. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Mulhall, Michael R., 2013. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 57-76.
    2. Kok, Nils & Monkkonen, Paavo & Quigley, John M., 2014. "Land use regulations and the value of land and housing: An intra-metropolitan analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-148.
    3. Mark Fitzgerald & David J. Hansen & Will McIntosh & Barrett A. Slade, 2020. "Urban Land: Price Indices, Performance, and Leading Indicators," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 396-419, April.
    4. repec:bea:wpaper:0209 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior," NBER Working Papers 17882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Peter Colwell & Henry Munneke, 2009. "Directional Land Value Gradients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Wentland, Scott A. & Ancona, Zachary H. & Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Boyd, James & Hass, Julie L. & Gindelsky, Marina & Moulton, Jeremy G., 2020. "Accounting for land in the United States: Integrating physical land cover, land use, and monetary valuation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    8. Scott Wentland & Gary Cornwall & Jeremy G. Moulton, 2023. "For What It's Worth: Measuring Land Value in the Era of Big Data and Machine Learning," BEA Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    9. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    10. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.
    11. Kanis Saengchote & Voraprapa Nakavachara & Yishuang Xu, 2023. "Capitalising the Network Externalities of New Land Supply in the Metaverse," PIER Discussion Papers 203, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Kanis Saengchote & Voraprapa Nakavachara & Yishuang Xu, 2023. "Capitalising the Network Externalities of New Land Supply in the Metaverse," Papers 2303.17180, arXiv.org.
    13. Larson, William D. & Shui, Jessica, 2022. "Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    14. Liang Peng, 2020. "Benchmarking Local Commercial Real Estate Returns: Statistics Meets Economics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1004-1029, December.
    15. Daniel Melser, 2023. "Selection Bias in Housing Price Indexes: The Characteristics Repeat Sales Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 623-637, June.
    16. Dubé, Jean & Legros, Diègo & Devaux, Nicolas, 2018. "From bus to tramway: Is there an economic impact of substituting a rapid mass transit system? An empirical investigation accounting for anticipation effect," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 73-87.
    17. William Larson, 2015. "New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States," BEA Working Papers 0120, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    18. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    19. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Stavins, Robert N., 2002. "The effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 561-581, November.
    20. I. R. Aliu, 2016. "Marginal land use and value characterizations in Lagos: untangling the drivers and implications for sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 1615-1634, December.
    21. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real property; Prices;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.