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Analysis of the filtering process and the ripple effect on the primary and secondary housing market in Warsaw, Poland

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  • Brzezicka, Justyna
  • Łaszek, Jacek
  • Olszewski, Krzysztof
  • Waszczuk, Joanna

Abstract

The evolution of prices on the Warsaw (Poland) housing market was analyzed to identify the main drivers of market development. Newly developed housing and the existing housing stock were analyzed separatelywith a division into small, medium and large apartments (first stage of research). The macro-districts of the city of Warsaw were taken into account in the analysis (second stage of research). Complete data regarding individual transactions were not available; therefore, the analysis relied on changes in house prices in macro-districts between 2010Q1 and 2016Q4. In general, Poland still has a housing shortage, which is also visible in the capital city. Granger causality tests were performed to provide evidence for the filtering process and the ripple effect in selected market segment pairs. An increase in the prices of small apartments on the secondary market led to an increase in the prices of newly built medium-sized apartments. A similar correlation was noted between the prices of medium-sized apartments on the secondary market and the prices of newly built large apartments. The increase in housing prices in the city center tended to spill over to selected macro-districts. Our findings were confirmed by the vector autoregressive (VAR) model.

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  • Brzezicka, Justyna & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2019. "Analysis of the filtering process and the ripple effect on the primary and secondary housing market in Warsaw, Poland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:88:y:2019:i:c:s0264837719304211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104098
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    Cited by:

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    2. Renigier-Biłozor, Małgorzata & Źróbek, Sabina & Walacik, Marek & Borst, Richard & Grover, Richard & d’Amato, Maurizio, 2022. "International acceptance of automated modern tools use must-have for sustainable real estate market development," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Chmielewska Aneta & Adamiczka Jerzy & Romanowski Michał, 2020. "Genetic Algorithm as Automated Valuation Model Component in Real Estate Investment Decisions System," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(4), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Arkadiusz Kuświk & Łukasz Mach & Łukasz Mikołajczyk & Marian Drymluch, 2021. "The influence of characteristics of estate developer’s apartments on the chance of selling them," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 167-190.
    5. Marek Walacik & Małgorzata Renigier‐Biłozor & Aneta Chmielewska & Artur Janowski, 2020. "Property sustainable value versus highest and best use analyzes," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 1755-1772, November.
    6. Brzezicka Justyna, 2022. "The Application of the Simplified Speculative Frame Method for Monitoring the Development of the Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(1), pages 84-98, March.
    7. Mateusz Tomal, 2022. "Testing for overall and cluster convergence of housing rents using robust methodology: evidence from Polish provincial capitals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 2023-2055, April.
    8. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    filtering proces; ripple effect; housing market; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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