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Forecasting of the global migration situation based on the analysis of net migration in the countries

Author

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  • Lifshits, Marina

    (Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population RAS (ISESP-RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

To fulfill the stated purpose, models of net migration for the 180 countries in the 1963–2012 are built in this work. Particular attention is paid to the migration relationship between the countries and the ratio of economic development levels between countries which are migration partners. To this end, the database ‘Global Bilateral Migration’ is used. Also the labor resources situation in the countries both of origin and of receiving of international migrants is taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Lifshits, Marina, 2016. "Forecasting of the global migration situation based on the analysis of net migration in the countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 41, pages 96-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0287
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dunlevy, James A & Gemery, Henry A, 1977. "The Role of Migrant Stock and Lagged Migration in the Settlement Patterns of Nineteenth Century Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(2), pages 137-144, May.
    2. Lifshits, Marina, 2013. "The influence of migration and natural reproduction of labor force upon economic growth in the countries of the world," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 32-51.
    3. Greenwood, Michael J, 1969. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Geographic Labor Mobility in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 189-194, May.
    4. Guriev, Sergei & Vakulenko, Elena, 2015. "Breaking out of poverty traps: Internal migration and interregional convergence in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 633-649.
    5. Abramitzky, Ran & Boustan, Leah Platt & Eriksson, Katherine, 2013. "Have the poor always been less likely to migrate? Evidence from inheritance practices during the age of mass migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 2-14.
    6. Paolo Silvestri, 2009. "Pubblico e privato: prime valutazioni sul caso modenese," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0070, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    7. Lifshits, Marina, 2011. "Migration in the global world: economical and demographical roles and prospects for Russia," MPRA Paper 36945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Mathias Moser & Anna Raggl, 2013. "On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 5," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46849.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population migration; international migrants; migration relations; labor force; factors of net migration; age structure of population; net migration forecasting; economic forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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