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Demographic forecasts, migration and transition theory: a labor market perspective

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  • Michele Bruni

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Abstract

The paper proposes a new logical system to build demographic scenarios based on a model that explain migration infl ows as a function of the manpower needs that countries with below replacement fertility are experiencing, as a result both of the decline in Working Age Population and employment growth. Using this approach we show that the WAP of countries characterized by low fertility will necessarily increase; that the migration balance of numerous countries will turn from negative to positive well before 2050; that the level of the international migration fl ows will progressively increase to unprecedented values so that at least 250-300 million people will move from developing countries to developed countries in the next 50 years; that the decline in fertility and the relative rates of employment growth of developed and developing countries will determine radical changes in the pattern of international migrations. The last part of the paper discusses some policy implications of this vision of the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Bruni, 2009. "Demographic forecasts, migration and transition theory: a labor market perspective," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0070, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:cappmo:0070
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Ranuzzini & Francesco Pagliacci & Margherita Russo, 2015. "L'informatizzazione delle procedure per la ricostruzione: prime evidenze dai contributi concessi per le abitazioni," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0127, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    2. Vittorio Piazzi & Francesco Pagliacci & Margherita Russo, 2015. "Analisi cluster delle caratteristiche socio-economiche dei comuni dell'Emilia-Romagna: un confronto tra comuni dentro e fuori dal cratere del sisma," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0120, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Francesco Pagliacci & Paola Bertolini, 2015. "Le specificità del sistema agro-alimentare nella ricostruzione post-sisma," Department of Economics 0068, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    4. Marco Ranuzzini & Francesco Pagliacci & Margherita Russo, 2015. "L'informatizzazione delle procedure per la ricostruzione: prime evidenze dai contributi concessi per le abitazioni," Department of Economics 0071, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    5. Francesco Pagliacci & Paola Bertolini, 2015. "Le specificità del sistema agro-alimentare nella ricostruzione post-sisma," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0125, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    6. Vittorio Piazzi & Francesco Pagliacci & Margherita Russo, 2015. "Analisi cluster delle caratteristiche socio-economiche dei comuni dell'Emilia-Romagna: un confronto tra comuni dentro e fuori dal cratere del sisma," Department of Economics 0061, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruni, Michele. & Luch, Likanan. & Kuoch, Somean., 2013. "Skills shortages and skills gaps in the Cambodian labour market : evidence from employer skills needs survey," ILO Working Papers 994835173402676, International Labour Organization.
    2. Lifshits, Marina, 2016. "Forecasting of the global migration situation based on the analysis of net migration in the countries," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 41, pages 96-122.
    3. Wilson, E. J. & Jayanthakumaran, K. & Verma, R., 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," ADBI Working Papers 387, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    microsimulation; inequality; in-kind benefits; higher education; university; tuition fees; subsidy;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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