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Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Cañas
  • Emily Kerr
  • Diego Morales-Burnett

Abstract

The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) is a monthly survey of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS indexes provide timely information about activity in the Texas private service sector, which makes up the bulk of the state economy. The survey provides invaluable information on regional economic conditions—information that the Dallas Fed president and economists use in the formulation of monetary policy and informing the public. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TSSOS indexes successfully track changes in Texas employment, gross domestic product and inflation. Forecasting exercises show that many TSSOS indexes are also useful in predicting future changes in some of the same metrics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Cañas & Emily Kerr & Diego Morales-Burnett, 2025. "Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy," Working Papers 2532, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:101524
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2532
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    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General

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