IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Principal Components Model Of The Romanian Economy. Study Of The Oil Price Impact Upon Gdp


  • Klein, Lawrence R.

    (Global Insight, Washington, USA)

  • Roudoi, Andrei

    (Global Insight, Washington, USA)

  • Eskin, Vladimir

    (Global Insight, Washington, USA)

  • Nicolae, Mariana

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting)


The paper attempts to study the influences of the quarterly changes in the international oil price upon certain macroeconomic indicators and upon the GDP, using the principal components analysis. It also analyzes the indirect impact of a change in oil prices – through all the other indicators – and also the direct one – through channels not reflected by the selected indicators and assuming they stay unchanged. The method revealed which of the considered components were more or less influenced by the changes in the oil price, and allowed for the quantification of the impact of the possible oil price shocks upon each of the considered variables, and, implicitly, upon the GDP, in the same interval within such a shock has occurred. (* This paper was prepared for the international workshop within the program Improvement of Economic Policy through Think Tank Partnership”, held in Bucharest, Romania, on October 27-29, 2003, and is part of a grant by the U.S. Agency for International Development for the project “Mechanisms of Long-term Growth in the Economies in Transition (Cases of Russia and Romania)”. The research partners of this project were Global Insight (former DRI-WEFA – USA), the Institute of Economic Forecasting (Romania) and the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Economic Forecasting (Russian Federation). This publication was made possible through support provided by the Moscow Office of the U.S. Agency for International Development, under the terms of Contract No. PCE-I-00-00-00014-00. The options, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development).

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Lawrence R. & Roudoi, Andrei & Eskin, Vladimir & Nicolae, Mariana, 2004. "Principal Components Model Of The Romanian Economy. Study Of The Oil Price Impact Upon Gdp," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(5), pages 67-80.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:1:y:2004:i:5:p:67-80

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item


    principal components analysis; macroeconomic forecasting; gross domestic product; oil price shocks; Brent oil price;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:1:y:2004:i:5:p:67-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.