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A P* Model of Inflation in Puerto Rico

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  • Rodríguez, Carlos A.

Abstract

One can analyze and forecast the inflationary potential in the Puerto Rican economy using the “P* model.” Given the nature of the monetary sector in Puerto Rico (PR), the model is put into the context of variables from the mainland United States (US). The results indicate a long-run relationship between the money supply (M1) of the US and the price level in PR, between M1 and real production in PR, and between M1 and the prime rate in PR. The implications for forecasting and policy are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez, Carlos A., 2004. "A P* Model of Inflation in Puerto Rico," MPRA Paper 41278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41278
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galindo, Luis Miguel, 1997. "El modelo P* como indicador de la política monetaria en una economía con alta inflación," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 64(254), pages 221-239, abril-jun.
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    5. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    6. Hall, Stephen G & Milne, Alistair, 1994. "The Relevance of P-Star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 597-604, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric Modeling; Time Series Analysis; Forecasting Methods; Monetary Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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