IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/41278.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A P* Model of Inflation in Puerto Rico

Author

Listed:
  • Rodríguez, Carlos A.

Abstract

One can analyze and forecast the inflationary potential in the Puerto Rican economy using the “P* model.” Given the nature of the monetary sector in Puerto Rico (PR), the model is put into the context of variables from the mainland United States (US). The results indicate a long-run relationship between the money supply (M1) of the US and the price level in PR, between M1 and real production in PR, and between M1 and the prime rate in PR. The implications for forecasting and policy are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez, Carlos A., 2004. "A P* Model of Inflation in Puerto Rico," MPRA Paper 41278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41278/1/MPRA_paper_41278.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1989. "Monetary and non-monetary sources of inflation: an error correction analysis," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 89-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Richard G. Anderson & Jeffrey J. Hallman, 1993. "Has the long-run velocity of M2 shifted? Evidence from the P* model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 29(Q I), pages 14-26.
    3. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Galindo, Luis Miguel, 1997. "El modelo P* como indicador de la política monetaria en una economía con alta inflación," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 64(254), pages 221-239, abril-jun.
    6. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    7. Hall, Stephen G & Milne, Alistair, 1994. "The Relevance of P-Star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 597-604, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos A. Rodríguez Ramos, 2003. "The P* model as a general identity to analyze and forecast the behavior of the inflation rate in the economy of Puerto Rico," Econometrics 0302002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Carlos A. Rodríguez Ramos, 2003. "The P* model as a general identity to analyze and forecast the behavior of the inflation rate in the economy of Puerto Rico," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2003_06, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    3. Robert H. Rasche, 1993. "Monetary aggregates, monetary policy and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-35.
    4. Herwany, Aldrin & Febrian, Erie, 2008. "Co-integration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets For Risk Management & Portfolio Selection," MPRA Paper 10259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wesam Salah Alaloul & Muhammad Ali Musarat & Muhammad Babar Ali Rabbani & Qaiser Iqbal & Ahsen Maqsoom & Waqas Farooq, 2021. "Construction Sector Contribution to Economic Stability: Malaysian GDP Distribution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, April.
    6. Mohamed, Hazik & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Stock market comovement among the ASEAN-5 : a causality analysis," MPRA Paper 98781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    8. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    9. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    11. Bhatta, Siddha Raj, 2011. "Stability of demand for money function in Nepal: A cointegration and error correction modeling approach," MPRA Paper 41404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    13. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Abdul Qayyum, 2000. "Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 857-873.
    15. Muñoz, M. Pilar & Dickey, David A., 2009. "Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 857-866, November.
    16. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    17. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    18. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    19. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    20. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric Modeling; Time Series Analysis; Forecasting Methods; Monetary Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.