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El modelo P* como indicador de la política monetaria en una economía con alta inflación


  • Galindo, Luis Miguel

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)


The objective of this article is to analyze the P- star model in the Mexican economy. The main results of this work indicate the existence of a long term relationship between the price level and the monetary aggregate given by M2. Simultaneously, the empirical evidence does not reject that the sings and the coefficients are in accordance whit the economic theory. However, the tests of weak and strong exogeneity suggest that the relationship between prices and the monetary aggregate is not only in one direction and that it depends on the behavior of the velocity of circulation. This result implies that even if the P* has a good performance as and advance indicator of price level this must be taken whit caution. The gap price model, elaborated using the estimation of P*, gives relevant information to evaluate the future behavior of the growth rate of the inflation. However, more information is necessary in order to specify a model that represents a satisfactory approximation of the data generation process. These results indicate that the P-star model is a useful tool in the monetary policy programming.// El objetivo de este artículo es estimar y evaluar un modelo P* para la economía mexicana. Los principales resultados del trabajo indican que existe una relación de largo plazo entre precios y el acervo monetario representado por M2. Asimismo, la evidencia empírica no rechaza que los signos y los valores de los coeficientes estén de acuerdo con lo sugerido por la teoría económica. Sin embargo, las pruebas de exogeneidad fuerte indican que la relación de causalidad entre los precios y el acervo monetario no es unidireccional y que depende del comportamiento de la velocidad de circulación. Esto implica que si bien el modelo P* se desempeña adecuadamente como un indicador adelantado de nivel de precios los resultados deben tomarse con precaución. El modelo de brecha de precios, elaborado con bases en la estimación de P*, proporciona información pertinente para evaluar el comportamiento futuro de la tasa de crecimiento de la inflación, sin embargo, se requiere incluir más información para obtener un modelo que se aproxime adecuadamente al proceso generador de información. Estos resultados indican que el modelo P* puede representar un instrumento útil en la programación monetaria.

Suggested Citation

  • Galindo, Luis Miguel, 1997. "El modelo P* como indicador de la política monetaria en una economía con alta inflación," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(254), pages 221-239, abril-jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:64:y:1997:i:254:p:221-239

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A. Rodríguez Ramos, 2003. "The P* model as a general identity to analyze and forecast the behavior of the inflation rate in the economy of Puerto Rico," Econometrics 0302002, EconWPA.
    2. Rodríguez, Carlos A., 2004. "A P* Model of Inflation in Puerto Rico," MPRA Paper 41278, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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