IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

El modelo P* como indicador de la política monetaria en una economía con alta inflación

  • Galindo, Luis Miguel

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Registered author(s):

    The objective of this article is to analyze the P- star model in the Mexican economy. The main results of this work indicate the existence of a long term relationship between the price level and the monetary aggregate given by M2. Simultaneously, the empirical evidence does not reject that the sings and the coefficients are in accordance whit the economic theory. However, the tests of weak and strong exogeneity suggest that the relationship between prices and the monetary aggregate is not only in one direction and that it depends on the behavior of the velocity of circulation. This result implies that even if the P* has a good performance as and advance indicator of price level this must be taken whit caution. The gap price model, elaborated using the estimation of P*, gives relevant information to evaluate the future behavior of the growth rate of the inflation. However, more information is necessary in order to specify a model that represents a satisfactory approximation of the data generation process. These results indicate that the P-star model is a useful tool in the monetary policy programming.// El objetivo de este artículo es estimar y evaluar un modelo P* para la economía mexicana. Los principales resultados del trabajo indican que existe una relación de largo plazo entre precios y el acervo monetario representado por M2. Asimismo, la evidencia empírica no rechaza que los signos y los valores de los coeficientes estén de acuerdo con lo sugerido por la teoría económica. Sin embargo, las pruebas de exogeneidad fuerte indican que la relación de causalidad entre los precios y el acervo monetario no es unidireccional y que depende del comportamiento de la velocidad de circulación. Esto implica que si bien el modelo P* se desempeña adecuadamente como un indicador adelantado de nivel de precios los resultados deben tomarse con precaución. El modelo de brecha de precios, elaborado con bases en la estimación de P*, proporciona información pertinente para evaluar el comportamiento futuro de la tasa de crecimiento de la inflación, sin embargo, se requiere incluir más información para obtener un modelo que se aproxime adecuadamente al proceso generador de información. Estos resultados indican que el modelo P* puede representar un instrumento útil en la programación monetaria.

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

    Volume (Year): LXIV (2) (1997)
    Issue (Month): 254 (abril-junio)
    Pages: 221-239

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:64:y:1997:i:254:p:221-239
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    Order Information: Postal: Order print issues directly in our web page or with Guadalupe Galicia at Fondo de Cultura Económica, El Trimestre Económico, Carretera Picacho Ajusco 227, 6° piso,Col. Bosques del Pedregal, CP 14738, Tlalpan, Distrito Federal, México
    Web: Email:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:64:y:1997:i:254:p:221-239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rosa María González Mejía)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.