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Analysis and Forecast of Romania’s Population Ageing by Non-Linear Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Mariana BĂLAN

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Brînduşa-Mihaela RADU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

Demographic ageing of population turned lately into an extremely sensible issue, even thorny at times, and with deep impact on all generations and on most fields of economic activity. Romania, like all other European countries, is faced currently with demographic decrease. Demographic changes in the next decades are susceptible of having significant impact on the development of the Romanian economy. Population ageing, as a whole, affects negatively the GDP increase, by diminishing factor entries. At the same time, this phenomenon has negative impact also on GDP per capita, in particular for the future, mainly because of the decline in the employed population segment. In this context, knowing about the future evolution of the population plays a determinant role in adopting the measures and policies of economic growth. The paper intends in this stage of research to analyse and forecast Romania’s population ageing by using non-linear models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariana BĂLAN & Brînduşa-Mihaela RADU, 2015. "Analysis and Forecast of Romania’s Population Ageing by Non-Linear Methods," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 150820, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:150820
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population ageing; indicators of natural population movement; non-linear models; forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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