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Rational Expectations for Large Models: A Practical Algorithm and a Policy Application

  • Peter B. Dixon
  • K.R. Pearson
  • Mark R. Picton
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

This paper describes a practical and conceptually simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for the MONASH model of Australia but the general approach could be applied to a wide range of dynamic models. The method has been automated in the RunMONASH Windows software. This software provided a natural starting point for developing an automated procedure for conducting policy analysis under rational expectations because it already performed this function for static expectations. RunMONASH was also convenient because it incorporates comprehensive user-friendly data- and solution-interrogation facilities. We provide an illustrative application in which MONASH results obtained under rational expectations for the effects of motor vehicle tariff cuts are compared with results obtained under static expectations.

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Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number ip-81.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:ip-81
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  1. Malakellis, Michael, 1998. "Should Tariff Reductions Be Announced? An Intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(225), pages 121-38, June.
  2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
  3. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 539-52, September.
  4. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July.
  5. Bovenberg, A.L., 1985. "A dynamic general equilibrium model with adjustment cost," Other publications TiSEM e4c132f1-4c01-42df-890b-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  6. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152945 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. David Lipton & James M. Poterba & Jeffrey Sachs & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Multiple Shooting in Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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