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A Pedagogical Note on the Long Run of Macro Economic Models

  • Peter McAdam

This paper surveys and motivates the reasons for incorporating explicit long run of supply features into applied estimated macro economic models. It defines some basic stability conditions for such models and illustrates elements of long run considerations with reference to a small (22 equation) prototype model which fashions itself after many current models. It also shows that many of the key decisions when setting up the long run extended simulation horizon reduce to a relatively small number of relationships.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/9807.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 9807.

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Date of creation: Mar 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:9807
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.
  2. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
  4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  5. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Arulampalam, W. & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2002. "University of Warwick," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 9, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Kenneth F. WALLIS- & John D. WHITLEY, 1987. "Long-Run Properties of Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 6-7, pages 207-224.
  8. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 459, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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