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GDP-spillovers in multi-country models

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  • Douven, Rudy
  • Peeters, Marga

Abstract

Spillovers resulting from fiscal and monetary policy are compared and analysed in small static, small dynamic and large dynamic multi-country models. To compare the size of the spillovers, we consider simulations in which GDP for a certain number of years is held one percent above base in the country where the shock originates. The results indicate that spillovers are large in size. An important transmission mechanism in the contribution to foreign GDP is found to be the foreign real interest rate, contributions to foreign GDP generated through trade are found to be small. In empirical models with endogenous exchange and interest rates, it was found that under floating exchange rate regimes spillovers are much smaller than under pegged exchange rate regimes. Furthermore, we note that under floating exchange rate regimes, spillovers seem to be larger in small dynamic models than in large empirical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Douven, Rudy & Peeters, Marga, 1998. "GDP-spillovers in multi-country models," MPRA Paper 28506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

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    1. Savonarola vs Paperoga: decrescita e endogenità delle aree valutarie ottimali
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2011-12-31 23:42:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zheng & Li, Hua-Qun & Wu, Jing & Gong, Yi & Zhang, Huan-Bo & Zhao, Chen, 2010. "Policy modeling on the GDP spillovers of carbon abatement policies between China and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-45, January.
    2. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    3. Sun, Caizhi & Yang, Yudi & Zhao, Liangshi, 2015. "Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 123-136.
    4. Bagnai, Alberto, 2009. "The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 508-526, September.
    5. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal shock; monetary shock; multi-country model; GDP; spillover; exhange rate regime; econometric modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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