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Reconnecting Money to Inflation: The Role of the External Finance Premium

  • Jagjit S. Chadha

    ()

  • Luisa Corrado
  • Sean Holly

We re-connect money to inflation using Goodfriend and McCallum’s (2007) model where banks supply loans to cash-in-advance constrained consumers on the basis of the value of collateral provided and the monitoring skills of banks. We show that when shocks to monitoring and collateral dominate those to goods productivity and the velocity of money demand, money and the external finance premium become closely linked. This is because increases in asset prices allow banks to raise the supply of loans leading to an expansion in aggregate demand, via a compression of financial interest rates spreads, which in turn tends to be inflationary. Thus money and financial spreads are negatively correlated when banking sector shocks dominate. We suggest a simple augmented stabilising monetary policy rule that exploits the joint information from money and the external finance premium.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0816.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0816
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier.
  3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  4. De Graeve Ferre, 2007. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 83, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  7. Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado & Qi Sun, 2008. "Money, Prices and Liquidity Effects: Separating Demand from Supply," Studies in Economics 0817, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  8. Marvin Goodfriend & Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Banking and Interest Rates in Monetary Policy Analysis: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 13207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 145-164.
  11. Jagjit S. Chadha & Charles Nolan, 2004. "Optimal Simple Rules for the Conduct of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," CDMA Working Paper Series 200406, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  12. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  13. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-82, August.
  16. Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Fleshing out the monetary transmission mechanism: output composition and the role of financial frictions," Working Paper Series 0500, European Central Bank.
  17. Laurence H. Meyer, 2001. "Does money matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-16.
  18. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research.
  19. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
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