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A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

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  • Mr. Roger Farmer
  • Pawel Zabczyk

Abstract

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the claim that, in a popular class of theoretical models, the price level is sometimes determined by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. The models where this claim has been established assume that all decisions are made by an infinitely-lived representative agent. We present an alternative, arguably more realistic model, populated by sixty-two generations of people. We calibrate our model to an income profile from U.S. data and we show that the FTPL breaks down. In our model, the price level and the real interest rate are indeterminate, even when monetary and fiscal policy are both active. Our findings challenge established views about what constitutes a good combination of fiscal and monetary policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2019. "A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," IMF Working Papers 2019/219, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/219
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    3. Kamila, Anshuman, 2021. "Fiscal dominance in India: An empirical estimation," Working Papers 21/359, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Maitra, Biswajit & Hossain, Tafajul, 2024. "Exploring price level trajectory in India: Does it validate the fiscal theory of price level?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Gancho Ganchev & Ivan Todorov, 2021. "Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(3), pages 255-266.
    6. Anshuman Kamila, 2021. "Fiscal dominance in India: Through the windshield and the rearview mirror," IEG Working Papers 429, Institute of Economic Growth.
    7. Czeczeli, Vivien, 2023. "Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben [The sustainability of public debt in a low interest rate environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1361-1388.
    8. Phil Armstrong, 2020. "Can Heterodox Economics Make a Difference?," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 19964.

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