IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/kbawps/297992.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary-fiscal policy interdependence and pricing dynamics: Empirical estimation of fiscal dominance in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Lidiema, Caspah

Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies with a view to establishing the existence of fiscal dominance in Kenya. The study employed monthly data for the period Jan 2010 - Dec 2022. Using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model, the study captured price dynamics through the three channels of foreign exchange, inflation and lending rates. All data was obtained from the Central Bank of Kenya online repositories. The empirical assessment of this paper leads to three broad insightful conclusions. First, from policy front, monetary policy is not fully effective in controlling and stabilizing prices especially inflation; two, expansionary fiscal policy is not only inflationary but leads to higher interests' rates as well and three: there exists traces of fiscal dominance even though it does not appear to very high form of fiscal dominance (which this study calls the slow intrusion of fiscal policy into the monetary policy space). The study therefore concludes that while fiscal dominance may not be very pronounced, there is need to review the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies to fully gain from the interdependence of the two policies by stabilizing prices and enhancing growth as expected and avoid macro-economic instability that comes with fiscal dominance. The paper recommends reducing government borrowing especially domestic borrowing, cutting unnecessary spending, directing spending towards development projects like infrastructure or social-economic projects and sectors that support or influence growth; establish the necessity of currency pegging to avoid unpleasant multiplier effect of fiscal dominance, review the emergence and effects of dollarization in Kenya and lastly review of fiscal policy and establish if there is a need for a Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC).

Suggested Citation

  • Lidiema, Caspah, 2024. "Monetary-fiscal policy interdependence and pricing dynamics: Empirical estimation of fiscal dominance in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 83, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kbawps:297992
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/297992/1/1890863807.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kashif Munir & Nimra Riaz, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Pakistan: a disaggregate analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(52), pages 5652-5662, November.
    2. Philip W. S. Newall, 2016. "Downside financial risk is misunderstood," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(5), pages 416-423, September.
    3. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
    4. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo, 2012. "Asset prices and monetary policy in Kenya," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 451-468, August.
    5. Matthias M M Buehlmaier & Josef Zechner, 2021. "Financial Media, Price Discovery, and Merger Arbitrage [Who writes the news? Corporate press releases during merger negotiations]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 997-1046.
    6. Jeanne, O., 2012. "Fiscal challenges to monetary dominance in the euro area: a theoretical perspective," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 143-150, April.
    7. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57, June.
    8. repec:aer:wpaper:94 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Roger E.A. Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2019. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy When People Have Finite Lives," NBER Working Papers 25445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    11. Akin Usupbeyli & Sefer Ucak, 2020. "The Effects of Exchange Rates on CPI and PPI," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 11(2), pages 323-334.
    12. Thomas A. Lubik, 2022. "Analyzing Fiscal Policy Matters More Than Ever: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Inflation," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 22(39), September.
    13. J. Scott Davis & Ippei Fujiwara & Jiao Wang, 2018. "Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1369-1399, October.
    14. Mr. Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2019. "A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," IMF Working Papers 2019/219, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
    16. Strong, Christine & Yayi, Constant, 2021. "Central bank independence, fiscal deficits and currency union: Lessons from Africa," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Thornton, John, 2016. "Inflation targeting in developing countries revisited," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 145-153.
    18. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Tomas J. Philipson & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "Financial Health Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 195-242, January.
    19. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    20. Kessy, Pantaleo, 2011. "Dollarization in Tanzania: empirical evidence and cross-country experience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 36381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    22. Emmanuel Duodu & Samuel Tawiah Baidoo & Hadrat Yusif & Prince Boakye Frimpong, 2022. "Money supply, budget deficit and inflation dynamics in Ghana: An empirical investigation," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2043810-204, December.
    23. Kabanda Richard & Peter W. Muriu & Benjamin Maturu, 2018. "Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Output Stabilization in Developing Countries: Evidence from Rwanda," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 220-232, January.
    24. Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James, 2022. "Government spending and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    25. Michael D. Bordo & Mickey D. Levy, 2021. "Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-83, February.
    26. Cyrus MUTUKU, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Sustainability: A Fiscal Reaction Function for Kenya," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 173-191, September.
    27. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
    28. Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures & World Bank Group, 2016. "Payment Aspects of Financial Inclusion," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 24806, April.
    29. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    30. Anshuman Kamila, 2022. "Fiscal dominance in India: an empirical estimation," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 113-132, June.
    31. Suna Korkmaz, 2015. "Impact of Bank Credits on Economic Growth and Inflation," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 1-4.
    32. Hail Park & Jong Chil Son, 2022. "Dollarization, inflation and foreign exchange markets: A cross‐country analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2724-2736, July.
    33. Sarah El-Khishin & Dina Kassab, 2021. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions During Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 1493, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Oct 2021.
    34. Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi & Christian Nsiah, 2020. "Fiscal dominance and inflation: Evidence from Nigerian and South African’s experiences," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1814508-181, January.
    35. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    36. repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:5:p:416-423 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Miss Nkunde Mwase & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Ms. Hiroko Oura & Mr. Franto Ricka & Katsiaryna Svirydzenka & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2016. "Spillovers from China: Financial Channels," IMF Spillover Notes 2016/005, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Henriette M. Prast & Arthur van Soest, 2016. "Financial Literacy and Preparation for Retirement," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 51(3), pages 113-118, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maitra, Biswajit & Hossain, Tafajul, 2024. "Exploring price level trajectory in India: Does it validate the fiscal theory of price level?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Czeczeli, Vivien, 2023. "Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben [The sustainability of public debt in a low interest rate environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1361-1388.
    3. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis: an application to France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459336, HAL.
    4. Phil Armstrong, 2020. "Can Heterodox Economics Make a Difference?," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 19964.
    5. Alexandre Carbonneau & Fr'ed'eric Godin, 2021. "Deep equal risk pricing of financial derivatives with non-translation invariant risk measures," Papers 2107.11340, arXiv.org.
    6. Wang, Fang, 2023. "Do emerging art market segments have their own price dynamics? Evidence from the Chinese art market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 318-331.
    7. Joshua C.C. Chan & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Renée A. Fry-McKibbin, 2013. "A Regime Switching Skew-normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2013-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Yousefi, Hamed & Najand, Mohammad, 2022. "Geographical diversification using ETFs: Multinational evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro, 2016. "Skewness and kurtosis of multivariate Markov-switching processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 153-159.
    10. Samet G nay, 2015. "Markov Regime Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Model and Volatility Modeling for Oil Returns," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 979-985.
    11. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2017. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-112.
    12. Kai Zheng & Weidong Xu & Xili Zhang, 2023. "Multivariate Regime Switching Model Estimation and Asset Allocation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 165-196, January.
    13. Coppola, Anna & Urga, Giovanni & Varaldo, Alessandro, 2025. "Asset class liquidity risk indicators. Timing the risk in the European and US equity and bond markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Anita Behme, 2024. "Volatility modeling in a Markovian environment: Two Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-related approaches," Papers 2407.05866, arXiv.org.
    15. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    16. Giovanna Bua & Carmine Trecroci, 2019. "International equity markets interdependence: bigger shocks or contagion in the 21st century?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(1), pages 43-69, February.
    17. Robert Dixon & Zhichao Zhang & Yang Dai, 2016. "Exchange Rate Flexibility in China: Measurement, Regime Shifts and Driving Forces of Change," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 875-892, November.
    18. Anshuman Kamila, 2021. "Fiscal dominance in India: Through the windshield and the rearview mirror," IEG Working Papers 429, Institute of Economic Growth.
    19. Yanlin Shi, 2023. "Long memory and regime switching in the stochastic volatility modelling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 320(2), pages 999-1020, January.
    20. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2019. "Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in regime switching econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 442-467.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:kbawps:297992. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.kba.co.ke/about_research_center.php .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.