IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/29119.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasts and constraints on policy actions: the reliability of alternative instruments

Author

Listed:
  • Bianchi, Carlo
  • Brillet, Jean-Louis
  • Calzolari, Giorgio

Abstract

Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier should be a trade-off criterion which measures the effect of a variation of the instrument associated with a given cost on government budget, trade balance, etc. The trade-off criterion computed from a macroeconomic model is obviously affected by uncertainty to some extent; a criterion which appears to be strongly effective might at the same time be affected by such an high degree of uncertainty as to recommend against its use. The problem of uncertainty due to estimation errors will be investigated in this paper through experiments on the Mini-DMS model of the French economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1986. "Forecasts and constraints on policy actions: the reliability of alternative instruments," MPRA Paper 29119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29119/1/MPRA_paper_29119.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1984. "Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS
      [Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m
      ," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
    2. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1983. "Non-linear regression models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 333-389 Elsevier.
    3. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1985. "Effectiveness versus reliability of policy actions under government budget constraint: the case of France," MPRA Paper 29055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric model; French economy; stochastic simulation; multipliers; trade-off criteria; constraints on policy actions; asymptotic standard errors;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.