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Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS
[Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to mini-DMS model]

Author

Listed:
  • Bianchi, Carlo
  • Brillet, Jean-Louis
  • Calzolari, Giorgio

Abstract

This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of methods associating, to deterministic forecasts, a measure of the uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of behavioural equations. After having described the theoretical and practical foundations of the methods, we shal l analyze sequentially the deterministic bias, the uncertainty (standard error) of forecasts and of policy instruments, trying to look at the information from the point of view of the policy maker.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1984. "Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS
    [Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m
    ," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22565
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22565/1/MPRA_paper_22565.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1981. "Estimating asymptotic standard errors and inconsistencies of impact multipliers in nonlinear econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 277-294, August.
    2. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1979. "Antithetic variates to estimate the simulation bias in non-linear models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 323-328.
    3. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-378, June.
    4. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1977. "Three-stage least-squares estimation for a system of simultaneous, nonlinear, implicit equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 71-88, January.
    5. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1985. "Asymptotic properties of dynamic multipliers in nonlinear econometric models," MPRA Paper 24401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gustafson, Elizabeth F., 1978. "Testing unstable econometric models for stability : An empirical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-201, October.
    7. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1980. "The One-Period Forecast Errors in Nonlinear Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(1), pages 201-208, February.
    8. Dhrymes, Phoebus J, 1973. "Restricted and Unrestricted Reduced Forms: Asymptotic Distribution and Relative Efficiency," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 119-134, January.
    9. Brundy, James M & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 207-224, August.
    10. Oberhofer, W & Kmenta, J, 1973. "Estimation of Standard Errors of the Characteristic Roots of a Dynamic Econometric Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 171-177, January.
    11. Gill, Leonard & Brissimis, Sophocles N., 1978. "Polynomial operators and the asymptotic distribution of dynamic multipliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 373-384, April.
    12. James M. Brundy & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1971. "Efficient estimation of simultaneous equations by instrumental variables," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Brillet, Jean-Louis, 1987. "Measuring forecast uncertainty : A review with evaluation based on a macro model of the French economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 211-227.
    2. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1990. "Mode predictors in nonlinear systems with identities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-326, October.
    3. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1988. "A trade-off criterion for evaluating effectiveness and reliability of alternative policy actions," MPRA Paper 23869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1985. "Effectiveness versus reliability of policy actions under government budget constraint: the case of France," MPRA Paper 29055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1986. "Coherent optimal prediction with large nonlinear systems: an example based on a French model," MPRA Paper 29057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1986. "Forecasts and constraints on policy actions: the reliability of alternative instruments," MPRA Paper 29119, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mini-DMS model of France; Stochastic simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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