IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eureia/272173.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Posterior Analysis Of Klein'S Model

Author

Listed:
  • van Dijk, H. K.
  • Kloek, T.

Abstract

This paper gives a posterior analysis of Klein's well known model I [Klein (1950)]. The underlying prior distribution of the parameters which are interesting for economists is uniform on finite intervals, which exclude "wrong" signs. Monte Carlo is used as a numerical integration method in order to compute posterior results which include posterior moments and marginal posterior densities for structural parameters and for short-run and long-run multipliers. Special attention is given to the problem of constructing a good importance function, which is required in the Monte Carlo procedure. In addition, the posterior probability that the model is of the damped oscillatory type is computed and found to be 0.97.

Suggested Citation

  • van Dijk, H. K. & Kloek, T., 1978. "Posterior Analysis Of Klein'S Model," Econometric Institute Archives 272173, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eureia:272173
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.272173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/272173/files/erasmus109.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/272173/files/erasmus109.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.272173?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dhrymes, Phoebus J, 1973. "Restricted and Unrestricted Reduced Forms: Asymptotic Distribution and Relative Efficiency," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 119-134, January.
    2. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Dreze, Jacques H, 1976. "Bayesian Limited Information Analysis of the Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 1045-1075, September.
    4. Hendry, D F, 1971. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Systems of Simultaneous Regression Equations with Errors Generated by a Vector Autoregressive Process," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(2), pages 257-272, June.
    5. Oberhofer, W & Kmenta, J, 1973. "Estimation of Standard Errors of the Characteristic Roots of a Dynamic Econometric Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 171-177, January.
    6. Hendry, David F, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Systems of Simultaneous Regression Equations with Errors Generated by a Vector Autoregressive Process: A Correction," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 260-260, February.
    7. Schmidt, Peter, 1973. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Dynamic Multipliers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 161-164, January.
    8. Gill, Leonard & Brissimis, Sophocles N., 1978. "Polynomial operators and the asymptotic distribution of dynamic multipliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 373-384, April.
    9. Mizon, Grayham E, 1977. "Inferential Procedures in Nonlinear Models: An Application in a UK Industrial Cross Section Study of Factor Substitution and Returns to Scale," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1221-1242, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Dijk, H. K. & Kloek, T., 1980. "Further experience in Bayesian analysis using Monte Carlo integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 307-328, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Analysis and measurement of the uncertainty in Mini-Dms model for the French economy," MPRA Paper 29056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici [Forecast variance in econometric models]," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Calzolari, Giorgio & Bianchi, Carlo & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1982. "Uncertainty of policy recommendations for nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 28846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1984. "Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS [Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
    5. Bauwens, L. & Dijk, H. K., 1989. "Bayesian Limited Information Analysis Revisited," Econometric Institute Archives 272386, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. Giorgio Calzolari, 2015. "Indirect estimation and econometrics exams: how to live a round life," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2015_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    7. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1979. "A package for analytic simulation of econometric models," MPRA Paper 24134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson, 1975. "Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 398, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Radchenko, Stanislav & Tsurumi, Hiroki, 2006. "Limited information Bayesian analysis of a simultaneous equation with an autocorrelated error term and its application to the U.S. gasoline market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 31-49, July.
    10. Deschamps, P J, 1993. "Joint Tests for Regularity and Autocorrelation in Allocation Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 195-211, April-Jun.
    11. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1983. "Hessian and approximated Hessian matrices in maximum likelihood estimation: a Monte Carlo study," MPRA Paper 28847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1981. "Alternative estimates of the Klein-I model," MPRA Paper 23337, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 1981.
    13. Jansson, Leif & Mellander, Erik, 1984. "CONRAD – A Maximum Likelihood Program for Estimation of Simultaneous Equations Models that are Non-Linear in the Parameters," Working Paper Series 131, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    14. Beach, Charles M. & Yeo, Stephen, 1979. "Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Equations with a General Stationary Auto-Regressive Disturbance," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275148, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    15. Rude, James & Goddard, Ellen W., 1995. "Analysis of the Cost Structure for Processed Products: The Case of the Canadian Dairy Processing Sector," Working Papers 244804, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    16. Unknown, 1979. "On Biased Technological Progress: Comment and Extension," Working Papers 225650, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    17. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "Jeffreys prior analysis of the simultaneous equations model in the case with n+1 endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 251-283, December.
    18. Fisher, Brian S., 1979. "The Demand For Meat - An Example Of An Incomplete Commodity Demand System," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(3), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.
    20. Hoogerheide, Lennart F. & Kaashoek, Johan F. & van Dijk, Herman K., 2007. "On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: An application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 154-180, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eureia:272173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feeurnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.