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A trade-off criterion for evaluating effectiveness and reliability of alternative policy actions

Author

Listed:
  • Bianchi, Carlo
  • Brillet, Jean-Louis
  • Calzolari, Giorgio

Abstract

The evaluation of policy actions by means of macroeconomic models often begins with the analysis of multipliers. A rough analysis recommends to use those instruments that exhibit large multipliers. Government budget usually imposes some constraints on the policy action. Insted of the raw multiplier, a trade-off criterion could measure the effect of a variation of the instrument associated with a given cost in terms of government deficit. The trade-off criterion can be computed from the macroeconomic model, and this paper shows how to associate a standard error to the point estimate, thus providing a measurement of reliability of the policy instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1988. "A trade-off criterion for evaluating effectiveness and reliability of alternative policy actions," MPRA Paper 23869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23869
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1981. "Estimating asymptotic standard errors and inconsistencies of impact multipliers in nonlinear econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 277-294, August.
    2. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1983. "Non-linear regression models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 333-389, Elsevier.
    3. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1984. "Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS [Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
    4. Brundy, James M & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 207-224, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade-off criterion; multipliers; standard errors of multipliers; large scale econometric model; French economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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