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Independent Spike Models: Estimation and Validation

The authors apply a class of Markov switching models (independent spike models) to six European electricity markets and two European gas markets. This paper extends the current framework by introducing Gamma distributed spikes, which improves the fit for most energy markets. The models are quite complex. The robustness of the estimates is therefore evaluated using three different estimation strategies: direct maximization of the likelihood function, the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The seasonal variation is corrected for by using the month-ahead forward price as a predictor. The models provide good empirical results for most markets.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 62 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 180-196

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:62:y:2012:i:2:p:180-196
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  1. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  2. Haldrup; Niels & Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, 2005. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2005-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Rafal Weron & Michael Bierbrauer & Stefan Trück, 2003. "Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching," HSC Research Reports HSC/03/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  5. Alvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002. "Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Economics Working Papers we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  6. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  7. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
  8. Botterud, Audun & Kristiansen, Tarjei & Ilic, Marija D., 2010. "The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 967-978, September.
  9. Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004. "A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2004-2, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. Rafał Weron, 2009. "Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 457-473, July.
  11. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  12. De Jong Cyriel, 2006. "The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
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