Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is one of the key metrics in marketing and is considered an important segmentation base. This paper studies the capabilities of a range of models to predict CLV in the insurance industry. The simplest models can be constructed at the customer relationship level, i.e. aggregated across all services. The more complex models focus on the individual services, paying explicit attention to cross buying, but also retention. The models build on a plethora of approaches used in the existing literature and include a status quo model, a Tobit II model, univariate and multivariate choice models, and duration models. For all models, CLV for each customer is computed for a four-year time horizon. We find that the simple models perform well. The more complex models are expected to better capture the richness of relationship development. Surprisingly, this does not lead to substantially better CLV predictions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 5 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/business+%26+management/marketing/journal/11129/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meyer, Bruce D, 1990.
"Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
- Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bolton, R.N. & Lemo, K.N. & Verhoef, P.C., 2002. "The Theoretical Underpinnings of Customer Asset Management," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-80-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Dipak C. Jain & Naufel J. Vilcassim, 1991. "Investigating Household Purchase Timing Decisions: A Conditional Hazard Function Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.
- Donkers, A.C.D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Verhoef, P.C., 2001. "Using Selective Sampling for Binary Choice Models to Reduce Survey Costs," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-67-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Wagner Kamakura & Carl Mela & Asim Ansari & Anand Bodapati & Pete Fader & Raghuram Iyengar & Prasad Naik & Scott Neslin & Baohong Sun & Peter Verhoef & Michel Wedel & Ron Wilcox, 2005. "Choice Models and Customer Relationship Management," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 279-291, December.
- Kristiaan Helsen & David C. Schmittlein, 1993. "Analyzing Duration Times in Marketing: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Hazard Rate Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 395-414.
- Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Chun-Yao Huang, 2004. "A Dynamic Changepoint Model for New Product Sales Forecasting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 50-65, October.
- Peter E. Rossi & Robert E. McCulloch & Greg M. Allenby, 1996. "The Value of Purchase History Data in Target Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 321-340.
- Stern, Steven, 1992. "A Method for Smoothing Simulated Moments of Discrete Probabilities in Multinomial Probit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 943-952, July.
- Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2006. "Bagging and boosting classification trees to predict churn," Other publications TiSEM d5cb664d-5859-44db-a621-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Ruth N. Bolton, 1998. "A Dynamic Model of the Duration of the Customer's Relationship with a Continuous Service Provider: The Role of Satisfaction," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 45-65.
- Roland T. Rust & Peter C. Verhoef, 2005. "Optimizing the Marketing Interventions Mix in Intermediate-Term CRM," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 477-489, December.
- Wagner A. Kamakura & Bruce S. Kossar & Michel Wedel, 2004. "Identifying Innovators for the Cross-Selling of New Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(8), pages 1120-1133, August.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Paap,Richard, 2010. "Quantitative Models in Marketing Research," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521143653.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:qmktec:v:5:y:2007:i:2:p:163-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.