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Using copulas to model repeat purchase behaviour - An exploratory analysis via a case study

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  • Meade, Nigel
  • Islam, Towhidul

Abstract

We develop a model of the evolution of inter-purchase times for a consumer-packaged product. After the introduction of the product, a consumer waits to make the initial purchase, then either waits to repurchase or decides not to. A repurchasing consumer repeats this decision process. The components of the model are the repurchase probability and the density function of the time to repurchase at each stage of the purchasing cycle. Issues of interest are: the strength of the dependency between successive repurchase times; the number of repeat purchases before stability occurs; the effects of consumer characteristics on inter-purchase times. The model of individual purchasing behaviour can be transformed via simulation to produce sales time series for a given population. As an example, the model is estimated for a product using Australian panel data. The accuracy of the model's prediction is compared with an existing model.

Suggested Citation

  • Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2010. "Using copulas to model repeat purchase behaviour - An exploratory analysis via a case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 908-917, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:200:y:2010:i:3:p:908-917
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Calabrese, Raffaella & Degl’Innocenti, Marta & Osmetti, Silvia Angela, 2017. "The effectiveness of TARP-CPP on the US banking industry: A new copula-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 1029-1037.
    2. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Zhao, Shouqi, 2015. "On finite-time ruin probabilities in a generalized dual risk model with dependence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 134-148.
    3. Islam, Towhidul, 2014. "Household level innovation diffusion model of photo-voltaic (PV) solar cells from stated preference data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 340-350.
    4. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    5. Banciu, M. & Ødegaard, F., 2016. "Optimal product bundling with dependent valuations: The price of independence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 481-495.
    6. repec:eee:ijrema:v:32:y:2015:i:1:p:78-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:tiu:tiutis:52e91e47-4a2d-4e7b-bb23-3926b842ae30 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Riikonen, Antti & Smura, Timo & Töyli, Juuso, 2016. "The effects of price, popularity, and technological sophistication on mobile handset replacement and unit lifetime," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 313-323.

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