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Regularity in individual shopping trips: Implications for duration models in marketing

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  • Bijwaard, G.E.

Abstract

Most models for purchase timing behavior of households do not take into account that many households have regular and non-shopping days. I propose a statistical model for purchase timing that exploits information on the shopping days of households. It delivers forecasts for the number of purchases in the next period and for the timing of the first and consecutive purchases. Purchase occasions are modeled in terms of a counting process, which counts the recurrent purchases for each household as they evolve over time. I illustrate the model for yogurt and detergent purchases and highlight its useful managerial implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Bijwaard, G.E., 2005. "Regularity in individual shopping trips: Implications for duration models in marketing," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1909
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Modeling Purchases as Repeated Events," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 487-502, October.
    2. Dipak C. Jain & Naufel J. Vilcassim, 1991. "Investigating Household Purchase Timing Decisions: A Conditional Hazard Function Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.
    3. R. Dunn & S. Reader & N. Wrigley, 1983. "An Investigation of the Assumptions of the Nbd Model as Applied to Purchasing at Individual Stores," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 32(3), pages 249-259, November.
    4. Seetharaman, P B & Chintagunta, Pradeep K, 2003. "The Proportional Hazard Model for Purchase Timing: A Comparison of Alternative Specifications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 368-382, July.
    5. Jeongwen Chiang & Ching-Fan Chung & Emily Cremers, 2001. "Promotions and the pattern of grocery shopping time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 801-819.
    6. Kristiaan Helsen & David C. Schmittlein, 1993. "Analyzing Duration Times in Marketing: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Hazard Rate Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 395-414.
    7. Rita D. Wheat & Donald G. Morrison, 1990. "Assessing Purchase Timing Models: Whether or Not is Preferable to When," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 162-170.
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