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An exploratory hazard-based analysis of highway incident duration

  • Nam, Doohee
  • Mannering, Fred
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    The statistical analysis of highway incident duration has become an increasingly import research topic due to the impact that highway incidents (vehicle accidents and disablements) have on traffic congestion. In addition, there is a growing need to evaluate incident management programs that seek to reduce incident duration and incident-induced traffic congestion. We apply hazard-based duration models to statistically evaluate the time it takes detect/report, respond to, and clear incidents. Two-year data from Washington State's incident response team program were used to estimate the hazard models. The model estimation results show that a wide variety of factors significantly affect incident times (i.e. detection/reporting, response, and clearance times), and that different distributional assumptions for the hazard function are appropriate for the different incident times being considered. It was also found that the estimated coefficients were not stable between the two years of data used in model estimation. The findings of this paper provide an important demonstration of method and an empirical basis to assess incident management programs.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 85-102

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:34:y:2000:i:2:p:85-102
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    1. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
    2. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
    3. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    4. Dipak C. Jain & Naufel J. Vilcassim, 1991. "Investigating Household Purchase Timing Decisions: A Conditional Hazard Function Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Bhat, Chandra R., 1996. "A hazard-based duration model of shopping activity with nonparametric baseline specification and nonparametric control for unobserved heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-207, June.
    6. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
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