IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v91y2021ics0969699720305780.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the flight departure delay using survival analysis in South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Myeonghyeon
  • Bae, Jiheon

Abstract

The air transportation industry in South Korea has been growing since the 2000s. Although the number of air passengers has continuously increased, the flight delay rate has fluctuated from year to year. In this study, a survival analysis was conducted to compare each flight delay in terms of airport/time slot and to evaluate the actual impacts of major variables on flight delays. We performed multiple analyses using survival analysis methodologies, including the Kaplan–Meier estimator, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards model. In particular, we applied a turnaround buffer as a key variable in Cox proportional hazards model analysis. The survival curve showed that more international flights departed earlier than scheduled or with minimal delay than domestic flights. However, international flights tended to have more long-term delays. The log-rank test indicated that international flights had a wider distribution of delay times than domestic flights. In the Cox proportional hazards analysis, under the condition in which the actual flight turnaround time was less than 120 min, the results indicated that the longer the actual turnaround buffer was, the less frequently the delays occurred. By using these analyses, we could numerically verify the actual delay trends in South Korea. The results can be used as fundamental resources for political and economic decision-making processes in the aviation industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Myeonghyeon & Bae, Jiheon, 2021. "Modeling the flight departure delay using survival analysis in South Korea," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:91:y:2021:i:c:s0969699720305780
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101996
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699720305780
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101996?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nam, Doohee & Mannering, Fred, 2000. "An exploratory hazard-based analysis of highway incident duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 85-102, February.
    2. Wu, Cheng-Lung & Caves, Robert E, 2000. "Aircraft operational costs and turnaround efficiency at airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 201-208.
    3. Aaron Gutiérrez & Daniel Miravet & Òscar Saladié & Salvador Anton Clavé, 2020. "High-speed rail, tourists’ destination choice and length of stay: A survival model analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 578-597, June.
    4. Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar & Rhoades, Dawna L., 2001. "Airline alliance survival analysis: typology, strategy and duration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 209-218, July.
    5. Chiou, Yu-Chiun & Chen, Yen-Heng, 2010. "Factors influencing the intentions of passengers regarding full service and low cost carriers: A note," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 226-228.
    6. Abdelghany, Khaled F. & S. Shah, Sharmila & Raina, Sidhartha & Abdelghany, Ahmed F., 2004. "A model for projecting flight delays during irregular operation conditions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 385-394.
    7. Fourie, Colette & Lubbe, Berendien, 2006. "Determinants of selection of full-service airlines and low-cost carriers—A note on business travellers in South Africa," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 98-102.
    8. Xiong, Jing & Hansen, Mark, 2013. "Modelling airline flight cancellation decisions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-80.
    9. Tu, Yufeng & Ball, Michael O. & Jank, Wolfgang S., 2008. "Estimating Flight Departure Delay DistributionsA Statistical Approach With Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Pattern," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 112-125, March.
    10. AhmadBeygi, Shervin & Cohn, Amy & Guan, Yihan & Belobaba, Peter, 2008. "Analysis of the potential for delay propagation in passenger airline networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 221-236.
    11. Reynolds-Feighan, Aisling J. & Button, Kenneth J., 1999. "An assessment of the capacity and congestion levels at European airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 113-134.
    12. Pathomsiri, Somchai & Haghani, Ali & Dresner, Martin & Windle, Robert J., 2008. "Impact of undesirable outputs on the productivity of US airports," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 235-259, March.
    13. Kim, Amy & Hansen, Mark, 2013. "Deconstructing delay: A non-parametric approach to analyzing delay changes in single server queuing systems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 119-133.
    14. Kafle, Nabin & Zou, Bo, 2016. "Modeling flight delay propagation: A new analytical-econometric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 520-542.
    15. Hao, Lu & Hansen, Mark & Zhang, Yu & Post, Joseph, 2014. "New York, New York: Two ways of estimating the delay impact of New York airports," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 245-260.
    16. Barrett, Sean D., 1999. "Peripheral market entry, product differentiation, supplier rents and sustainability in the deregulated European aviation market – a case study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 21-30.
    17. Hansen, Mark, 2002. "Micro-level analysis of airport delay externalities using deterministic queuing models: a case study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 73-87.
    18. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Choi, Yuri & Song, Ki Han, 2019. "Identification model development for proactive response on irregular operations (IROPs)," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-8.
    19. Thijssens, O.W.M. & Verhagen, Wim J.C., 2020. "Application of Extended Cox Regression Model to Time-On-Wing Data of Aircraft Repairables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Wang, Yanjun & Zhou, Ying & Hansen, Mark & Chin, Christopher, 2019. "Scheduled block time setting and on-time performance of U.S. and Chinese airlines—A comparative analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 825-843.
    21. Zhong, Z.W. & Varun, Dhir & Lin, Y.J., 2017. "Studies for air traffic management R&D in the ASEAN-region context," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(PA), pages 15-20.
    22. Wong, Jinn-Tsai & Tsai, Shy-Chang, 2012. "A survival model for flight delay propagation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 5-11.
    23. Kang, Lei & Hansen, Mark, 2017. "Behavioral analysis of airline scheduled block time adjustment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 56-68.
    24. Kurtulmuşoğlu, Feride Bahar & Can, Gülin Feryal & Tolon, Metehan, 2016. "A voice in the skies: Listening to airline passenger preferences," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 130-137.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Sohn, Jeongwoong, 2022. "Passenger, airline, and policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis: The case of South Korea," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Park, Sunwook, 2021. "Airport and route classification by modelling flight delay propagation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Guo, Zhen & Hao, Mengyan & Yu, Bin & Yao, Baozhen, 2022. "Detecting delay propagation in regional air transport systems using convergent cross mapping and complex network theory," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sternberg, Alice & Carvalho, Diego & Murta, Leonardo & Soares, Jorge & Ogasawara, Eduardo, 2016. "An analysis of Brazilian flight delays based on frequent patterns," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 282-298.
    2. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Park, Sunwook, 2021. "Airport and route classification by modelling flight delay propagation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Yu, Bin & Guo, Zhen & Asian, Sobhan & Wang, Huaizhu & Chen, Gang, 2019. "Flight delay prediction for commercial air transport: A deep learning approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 203-221.
    4. Wang, Chunzheng & Hu, Minghua & Yang, Lei & Zhao, Zheng, 2022. "Improving the spatial-temporal generalization of flight block time prediction: A development of stacking models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Abdelghany, Ahmed & Guzhva, Vitaly S. & Abdelghany, Khaled, 2023. "The limitation of machine-learning based models in predicting airline flight block time," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    6. Brueckner, Jan K. & Czerny, Achim I. & Gaggero, Alberto A., 2022. "Airline delay propagation: A simple method for measuring its extent and determinants," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 55-71.
    7. Zhe Zheng & Wenbin Wei & Bo Zou & Minghua Hu, 2020. "How Late Does Your Flight Depart? A Quantile Regression Approach for a Chinese Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Li, Qiang & Jing, Ranzhe, 2021. "Characterization of delay propagation in the air traffic network," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Birolini, Sebastian & Jacquillat, Alexandre, 2023. "Day-ahead aircraft routing with data-driven primary delay predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(1), pages 379-396.
    10. Bojia Ye & Bo Liu & Yong Tian & Lili Wan, 2020. "A Methodology for Predicting Aggregate Flight Departure Delays in Airports Based on Supervised Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-13, April.
    11. Rodríguez-Sanz, à lvaro & Comendador, Fernando Gómez & Valdés, Rosa Arnaldo & Pérez-Castán, Javier A., 2018. "Characterization and prediction of the airport operational saturation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 147-172.
    12. Wu, Cheng-Lung & Law, Kristie, 2019. "Modelling the delay propagation effects of multiple resource connections in an airline network using a Bayesian network model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 62-77.
    13. Chen, Zhenhua & Wang, Yuxuan & Zhou, Lei, 2021. "Predicting weather-induced delays of high-speed rail and aviation in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Du, Wen-Bo & Zhang, Ming-Yuan & Zhang, Yu & Cao, Xian-Bin & Zhang, Jun, 2018. "Delay causality network in air transport systems," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 466-476.
    15. Li, Max Z. & Ryerson, Megan S., 2019. "Reviewing the DATAS of aviation research data: Diversity, availability, tractability, applicability, and sources," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 111-130.
    16. Lin, Pei-Chun, 2023. "The propagation of European airports’ on-time performance and on-time flights via air connectivity prior to the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Malandri, Caterina & Mantecchini, Luca & Reis, Vasco, 2019. "Aircraft turnaround and industrial actions: How ground handlers' strikes affect airport airside operational efficiency," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 23-32.
    18. Guo, Zhen & Hao, Mengyan & Yu, Bin & Yao, Baozhen, 2022. "Detecting delay propagation in regional air transport systems using convergent cross mapping and complex network theory," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    19. Eufrásio, Ana Beatriz R. & Eller, Rogéria A.G. & Oliveira, Alessandro V.M., 2021. "Are on-time performance statistics worthless? An empirical study of the flight scheduling strategies of Brazilian airlines," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    20. Chang, Li-Yen & Hung, Shao-Chih, 2013. "Adoption and loyalty toward low cost carriers: The case of Taipei–Singapore passengers," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-36.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:91:y:2021:i:c:s0969699720305780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.