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A survival model for flight delay propagation

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  • Wong, Jinn-Tsai
  • Tsai, Shy-Chang

Abstract

This paper examines flight delay propagation involving a Taiwanese domestic airline. The Cox proportional hazards model is used to develop departure and arrival delay models that show how flight delay propagation can be formulated through repeated chain effects in aircraft rotations. The hazard ratios obtained provide measures of the chances of recovering from flight delays under a variety of situations and the effects that individual contributing factors of flight delays have on airline schedule reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, Jinn-Tsai & Tsai, Shy-Chang, 2012. "A survival model for flight delay propagation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 5-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:23:y:2012:i:c:p:5-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.01.016
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    Cited by:

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    11. Kafle, Nabin & Zou, Bo, 2016. "Modeling flight delay propagation: A new analytical-econometric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 520-542.
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    17. Bojia Ye & Bo Liu & Yong Tian & Lili Wan, 2020. "A Methodology for Predicting Aggregate Flight Departure Delays in Airports Based on Supervised Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-13, April.
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    21. Tsegai O. Yhdego & An-Tsun Wei & Gordon Erlebacher & Hui Wang & Miguel G. Tejada, 2023. "Analyzing the Impacts of Inbound Flight Delay Trends on Departure Delays Due to Connection Passengers Using a Hybrid RNN Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, May.
    22. van Schilt, Isabelle M. & van Kalker, Jonna & Lefter, Iulia & Kwakkel, Jan H. & Verbraeck, Alexander, 2024. "Buffer scheduling for improving on-time performance and connectivity with a multi-objective simulation–optimization model: A proof of concept for the airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    23. Keji Wei & Vikrant Vaze, 2018. "Modeling Crew Itineraries and Delays in the National Air Transportation System," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 1276-1296, October.

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