IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v43y2013i5p764-782.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents

Author

Listed:
  • Fosgerau, Mogens
  • Lindsey, Robin

Abstract

This paper analyzes traffic bottleneck congestion when drivers randomly cause incidents that temporarily block the bottleneck. Drivers have general scheduling preferences for time spent at home and at work. They independently choose morning departure times from home to maximize expected utility without knowing whether an incident has occurred. The resulting departure time pattern may be compressed or dispersed according to whether or not the bottleneck is fully utilized throughout the departure period on days without incidents. For both the user equilibrium (UE) and the social optimum (SO) the departure pattern changes from compressed to dispersed when the probability of an incident becomes sufficiently high. The SO can be decentralized with a time-varying toll, but drivers are likely to be strictly worse off than in the UE unless they benefit from the toll revenues in some way. A numerical example is presented for illustration. Finally, the model is extended to encompass minor incidents in which the bottleneck retains some capacity during an incident.

Suggested Citation

  • Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 764-782.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:43:y:2013:i:5:p:764-782
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.07.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046213000586
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nam, Doohee & Mannering, Fred, 2000. "An exploratory hazard-based analysis of highway incident duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 85-102, February.
    2. Noland, Robert B. & Quddus, Mohammed A., 2005. "Congestion and safety: A spatial analysis of London," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 737-754.
    3. Casper G. Chorus & Harry J.P. Timmermans, 2011. "Personal Intelligent Travel Assistants," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 25 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1990. "Economics of a bottleneck," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 111-130, January.
    5. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2010. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-603, April.
    6. Noland, Robert B., 1997. "Commuter Responses to Travel Time Uncertainty under Congested Conditions: Expected Costs and the Provision of Information," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 377-406, May.
    7. Fosgerau, Mogens & de Palma, André, 2012. "Congestion in a city with a central bottleneck," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 269-277.
    8. Schrage, Andrea, 2006. "Traffic Congestion and Accidents," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 419, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    9. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
    10. Henderson, J. V., 1974. "Road congestion : A reconsideration of pricing theory," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 346-365, July.
    11. Hall, Randolph W., 1983. "Travel outcome and performance: The effect of uncertainty on accessibility," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 275-290, August.
    12. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-260, May.
    13. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2011. "The value of travel time variance," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, January.
    14. de Palma, André & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2013. "Random queues and risk averse users," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 313-320.
    15. Tseng, Yin-Yen & Verhoef, Erik T., 2008. "Value of time by time of day: A stated-preference study," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 607-618, August.
    16. Léonard,Daniel & Long,Ngo van, 1992. "Optimal Control Theory and Static Optimization in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521331586.
    17. Dickerson, Andrew & Peirson, John & Vickerman, Roger, 2000. "Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(265), pages 101-121, February.
    18. André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Nathalie Picard, 2012. "Risk Aversion, the Value of Information, and Traffic Equilibrium," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 1-26, February.
    19. Hall, Randolph W., 2002. "Incident dispatching, clearance and delay," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-16, January.
    20. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Levinson, David, 2011. "Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 789-807, June.
    21. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Franklin, Joel, 2012. "Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:2, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    22. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-179, March.
    23. Zhang, Xiaoning & Huang, Hai-Jun & Zhang, H.M., 2008. "Integrated daily commuting patterns and optimal road tolls and parking fees in a linear city," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 38-56, January.
    24. Paul Koster & Piet Rietveld, 2011. "Optimising Incident Management on the Road," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 45(1), pages 63-81, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peer, Stefanie & Verhoef, Erik T., 2013. "Equilibrium at a bottleneck when long-run and short-run scheduling preferences diverge," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 12-27.
    2. Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2014. "Bottleneck model revisited: An activity-based perspective," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 262-287.
    3. Takayama, Yuki & Kuwahara, Masao, 2017. "Bottleneck congestion and residential location of heterogeneous commuters," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 65-79.
    4. Koster, Paul & Peer, Stefanie & Dekker, Thijs, 2015. "Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 256-265.
    5. repec:eee:transb:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:306-334 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jonathan D. Hall, 2017. "Improving the fit of structural models of congestion," Working Papers tecipa-590, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Takayama, Yuki & Kuwahara, Masao, 2016. "Scheduling preferences, parking competition, and bottleneck congestion: A model of trip timing and parking location choices by heterogeneous commuters," MPRA Paper 68938, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Departure-time decisions; Bottleneck model; Traffic incidents; Congestion; Scheduling utility; Morning commute; Evening commute;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:43:y:2013:i:5:p:764-782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.