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Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Dickerson
  • John Peirson
  • Roger Vickerman

Abstract

This paper develops an empirical model of the relationship between road traffic accidents and traffic flows. The analysis focuses on the accident externality, which is determined mainly by the difference between the marginal and average risks. The model is estimated using a new data‐set which combines hourly London traffic count data from automated vehicle recorders together with police records of road accidents. The accident‐flow relationship is seen to vary considerably between different road classes and geographical areas. More importantly, even having controlled for these and other differences, the accident externality is shown to vary significantly with traffic flows. In particular, while the accident externality is typically close to zero for low to moderate traffic flows, it increases substantially at high traffic flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Dickerson & John Peirson & Roger Vickerman, 2000. "Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(265), pages 101-121, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:67:y:2000:i:265:p:101-121
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0335.00198
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    Cited by:

    1. Tito Moreira & Adolfo Sachsida & Loureiro Paulo, 2004. "Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 18(3), pages 1-7.
    2. Jonsson, Lina & Björklund, Gunilla & Isacsson, Gunnar, 2019. "Marginal costs for railway level crossings in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2019:1, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 22 Dec 2020.
    3. Cheng Keat Tang & Jos van Ommeren, 2022. "Accident externality of driving: evidence from the London Congestion Charge [Pounds that kill: the external costs of vehicle weight]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 547-580.
    4. Schrage, Andrea, 2006. "Traffic Congestion and Accidents," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 419, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Weber, Bryan S. & Moghtaderi, Ali & Cappellari, Paolo, 2025. "Effects of congestion surcharges: From ridership to competition and safety," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    6. Bian, Yiyang & Yang, Chen & Zhao, J. Leon & Liang, Liang, 2018. "Good drivers pay less: A study of usage-based vehicle insurance models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 20-34.
    7. Hyman, Geoffrey & Mayhew, Les, 2002. "Optimizing the benefits of urban road user charging," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 189-207, July.
    8. Daniel Albalate, 2013. "The Road against Fatalities: Infrastructure Spending vs. Regulation?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p221, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Lei Zhang & David Levinson, 2005. "Investing for Reliability and Security in Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200807, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    10. Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 764-782.
    11. Viacheslav Morozov & Artur I. Petrov & Vladimir Shepelev & Mohammed Balfaqih, 2024. "Ideology of Urban Road Transport Chaos and Accident Risk Management for Sustainable Transport Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-32, March.
    12. Gregory DeAngelo & Benjamin Hansen, 2014. "Life and Death in the Fast Lane: Police Enforcement and Traffic Fatalities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 231-257, May.
    13. Börjesson, Maria & Asplund, Disa & Hamilton, Carl, 2021. "Optimal kilometre tax for electric passenger cars," Working Papers 2021:3, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    14. Imran Ashraf & Soojung Hur & Muhammad Shafiq & Yongwan Park, 2019. "Catastrophic factors involved in road accidents: Underlying causes and descriptive analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-29, October.
    15. Noland, Robert B. & Quddus, Mohammed A., 2005. "Congestion and safety: A spatial analysis of London," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 737-754.
    16. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W., 2001. "Relationships Among Urban Freeway Accidents, Traffic Flow, Weather and Lighting Conditions," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2fh4x5hp, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    17. Daniel Albalate & Xavier Fageda, 2019. "Congestion, Road Safety, and the Effectiveness of Public Policies in Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-21, September.
    18. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W. & Alvarez, Veronica, 2002. "Freeway Safety as a Function of Traffic Flow: The FITS Tool for Evaluating ATMS Operations," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1tc5r61j, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    19. Pål Andreas Pedersen, 2001. "A Game Theoretical Approach to Road Safety," Studies in Economics 0105, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    20. Piera Bello, 2020. "The environmental cost and the accident externality of driving: Evidence from the Swiss franc’s appreciation," IdEP Economic Papers 2001, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    21. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W., 2003. "Relationships Among Urban Freeway Accidents, Traffic Flow, Weather, and Lighting Conditions," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt61v6d9kz, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    22. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:18:y:2004:i:3:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W. & Alvarez, Veronica M., 2003. "A Tool to Evaluate the Safety Effects of Changes in Freeway Traffic Flow," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1kn30323, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    24. Piera Bello, 2021. "The environmental cost and the accident externality of driving: Evidence from the Swiss franc's appreciation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1440-1458, July.
    25. Ilias-Nikiforos Pasidis, 2015. "Congestion by accident? Traffic and accidents in England," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1321, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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