IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01100105.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The marginal social cost of travel time variability

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Coulombel

    (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech)

  • André de Palma

    (X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique, ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan)

Abstract

This paper investigates the cost of travel time variability for car users at the peak hour. In particular, we derive the marginal social cost of travel time variability, which takes the feedback of travel time unreliability on the congestion profile into account. This is in contrast with the value of travel time variability, which treats congestion as an exogenous phenomenon. Congestion is modeled using the standard bottleneck model of road congestion, which we amend by adding a random delay. For individuals with (α , β , γ) preferences and uniformly distributed delays, the marginal social cost of travel time variability is strictly lower than the value of travel time variability. Moreover, we show that the former tends toward the latter when σ, the standard deviation of the random delay, tends toward +∞. For normally distributed delays, numerical application leads to similar conclusions. Analysis of data from the Paris area suggests that given the plausible range of σ, the marginal social cost of travel time variability is markedly lower than the value of travel time variability. When appraising the economic benefits of reliability improvements, one should prefer the marginal social cost of travel time variability for the peak period, and the value of travel time variability for the off-peak period.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Coulombel & André de Palma, 2014. "The marginal social cost of travel time variability," Post-Print hal-01100105, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01100105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2013.12.004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01100105
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01100105/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trc.2013.12.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    2. Andre de Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & Claude Lefevre & Nicolaos Litinas, 1983. "Stochastic Equilibrium Model of Peak Period Traffic Congestion," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 430-453, November.
    3. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    4. Tseng, Yin-Yen & Verhoef, Erik T., 2008. "Value of time by time of day: A stated-preference study," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 607-618, August.
    5. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-179, March.
    6. Robin Lindsey, 2004. "Existence, Uniqueness, and Trip Cost Function Properties of User Equilibrium in the Bottleneck Model with Multiple User Classes," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 293-314, August.
    7. Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1998. "Simulating travel reliability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 535-564, September.
    8. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-260, May.
    9. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1990. "Economics of a bottleneck," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 111-130, January.
    10. Barbara W.Y. Siu & Hong K. Lo, 2009. "Equilibrium Trip Scheduling in Congested Traffic under Uncertainty," Springer Books, in: William H. K. Lam & S. C. Wong & Hong K. Lo (ed.), Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009: Golden Jubilee, chapter 0, pages 147-167, Springer.
    11. Bates, John & Polak, John & Jones, Peter & Cook, Andrew, 0. "The valuation of reliability for personal travel," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 191-229, April.
    12. Nicolas Coulombel & André De Palma, 2014. "Variability of Travel Time, Congestion, and the Cost of Travel," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 220-242, December.
    13. Donald P. Gaver, 1968. "Headstart Strategies for Combating Congestion," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 172-181, May.
    14. Henderson, J. Vernon, 1981. "The economics of staggered work hours," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 349-364, May.
    15. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2010. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-603, April.
    16. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2011. "The value of travel time variance," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, January.
    17. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
    18. Liu, Henry X. & Recker, Will & Chen, Anthony, 2004. "Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 435-453, July.
    19. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1996. "Information and Usage of Free-Access Congestible Facilities with Stochastic Capacity and Demand," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(1), pages 181-203, February.
    20. Batley, Richard, 2007. "Marginal valuations of travel time and scheduling, and the reliability premium," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 387-408, July.
    21. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Franklin, Joel, 2012. "Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:2, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    22. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    23. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    4. Liu, Peng & Liu, Jielun & Ong, Ghim Ping & Tian, Qiong, 2020. "Flow pattern and optimal capacity in a bi-modal traffic corridor with heterogeneous users," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Li, Zhi-Chun & Huang, Hai-Jun & Yang, Hai, 2020. "Fifty years of the bottleneck model: A bibliometric review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 311-342.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    2. Benezech, Vincent & Coulombel, Nicolas, 2013. "The value of service reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Li, Zhi-Chun & Huang, Hai-Jun & Yang, Hai, 2020. "Fifty years of the bottleneck model: A bibliometric review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 311-342.
    4. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    5. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    6. André de Palma & Mogens Fosgerau, 2011. "Dynamic Traffic Modeling," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Nicolas Coulombel & André De Palma, 2014. "Variability of Travel Time, Congestion, and the Cost of Travel," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 220-242, December.
    8. Kenneth Small, 2015. "The Bottleneck Model: An Assessment and Interpretation," Working Papers 141506, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    9. Peer, Stefanie & Verhoef, Erik T., 2013. "Equilibrium at a bottleneck when long-run and short-run scheduling preferences diverge," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 12-27.
    10. Zhu, Tingting & Li, Yao & Long, Jiancheng, 2022. "Departure time choice equilibrium and tolling strategies for a bottleneck with continuous scheduling preference," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    11. André de Palma & Mogens Fosgerau, 2010. "Dynamic and Static congestion models: A review," Working Papers hal-00539166, HAL.
    12. Small, Kenneth A., 2015. "The bottleneck model: An assessment and interpretation," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 110-117.
    13. Small, Kenneth A., 2012. "Valuation of travel time," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 2-14.
    14. Yu, Xiaojuan & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2023. "Congestion pricing and information provision under uncertainty: Responsive versus habitual pricing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    15. Liu, Yang & Li, Yuanyuan & Hu, Lu, 2018. "Departure time and route choices in bottleneck equilibrium under risk and ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 774-793.
    16. Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 764-782.
    17. de Jong, Gerard C. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2015. "On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 80-95.
    18. Beaud, Mickael & Blayac, Thierry & Stéphan, Maïté, 2016. "The impact of travel time variability and travelers’ risk attitudes on the values of time and reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 207-224.
    19. Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2016. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 120-131, February.
    20. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Franklin, Joel, 2012. "Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:2, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01100105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.