Simulating travel reliability
We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Skabardonis, Alexander & Noeimi, Hisham & Petty, Karl & Rydzewski, Dan & Varaiya, Pravin & Al-deek, Haitham, 1995. "Freeway Service Patrol Evaluation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt36r1t2m2, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
- Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
- Henderson, J. Vernon, 1981. "The economics of staggered work hours," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 349-364, May.
- Chu, Xeuhao, 1993. "Trip Scheduling and Economic Analysis of Transportation Policies," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt36p986pv, University of California Transportation Center.
- Marvin Kraus, 1981. "Indivisibilities, Economies of Scale, and Optimal Subsidy Policy for Freeways," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(1), pages 115-121.
- Noland, Robert B., 1997. "Commuter Responses to Travel Time Uncertainty under Congested Conditions: Expected Costs and the Provision of Information," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 377-406, May.
- Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
- Chu Xuehao, 1995. "Endogenous Trip Scheduling: The Henderson Approach Reformulated and Compared with the Vickrey Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 324-343, May.
- Koskenoja, Pia Maria K., 1996. "The Effect of Unreliable Commuting Time on Commuter Preferences," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5cq3632j, University of California Transportation Center.
- Koskenoja, Pia Maria K., 1996. "The Effect of Unreliable Commuting Time on Commuter Preferences," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0rj9z9cv, University of California Transportation Center.
- Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1990.
"Economics of a bottleneck,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 111-130, January.
- Small, K. & Noland, R. & Koskenoja, P., 1995. "Socio-economic Attributes And Impacts Of Travel Reliability: A Stated Preference Approach," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt82n2w53k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:28:y:1998:i:5:p:535-564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.