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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Eu New Members: Methodology, Estimation and Applicability to ERM II

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  • Roman Horváth
  • Luboš Komárek

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the estimation and methodology of the real equilibrium exchange rate partial equilibrium models and analyse to what extent the resulting estimates are applicable for setting the central parity prior to ERM II entry in the New EU Member States. Given the uncertainty surrounding the estimates, we argue that they are informative in the sign rather than the size of the misalignment of the exchange rate, but may still serve as useful consistency checks for the decision on the setting of the central parity. We argue that policy makers should consider the estimates in their decision-making only if the real exchange rate is substantially misaligned.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Eu New Members: Methodology, Estimation and Applicability to ERM II," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2007(1), pages 24-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2007:y:2007:i:1:id:295:p:24-37
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    Keywords

    New EU Member States; Equilibrium Exchange Rate; ERM II;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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